The 2025 Major League Baseball Draft is quickly approaching, less than one month away, and it seems that the Minnesota Twins could go in any number of directions when they make the selection in the middle of the first round. As prospect insiders prepare for the draft, they are also taking a look back at some of the biggest misses in recent memory.

Keith Law of The Athletic teased his disappointment with the Twins’ 2015 first-round selection of Tyler Jay when he did a redraft that saw Brandon Lowe be the selection instead of Jay. Law took it a step further in his latest work, listing Jay as one of the biggest misses of the 2015 draft.

“Jay was pretty badly overworked at the University of Illinois, missed most of 2017 with a shoulder impingement, and was ineffective when he returned in 2018. The Reds flat-out bought his contract from the Twins in 2019, then released him during the pandemic, after which he discovered he had eosinophilic esophagitis, an autoimmune disorder that caused him to lose weight and stamina,” Law wrote for The Athletic.

Prospect expert doesn’t hold back about Twins’ 2015 draft mistakes

It’s a painful career story that Twins fans know all too well. The selection of Jay was a massive failure for the Twins.

Despite the projection of a relief pitcher who could thrive with a specialty pitch, the Twins took a gamble with the chance that Jay could convert into a starting pitcher. It didn’t work as injuries all but derailed the already little momentum Jay had during his time in the organization.

When a team is making a selection within the first 10 picks of the draft, the expectation is that they are landing a prospect who has the potential to alter the organization. That expectation was never met with Jay and the Twins.

Entering the 2025 draft, the expectations won’t be as high for the Twins’ first-round pick. Holding the No. 16 selection, the Twins are in a position where they can take a gamble on a high-ceiling prospect.

For example, in ESPN’s latest mock draft, the Twins are selecting Gage Wood. After a historic performance in the College World Series, the case can already be made that the arrival of a pitcher like Wood would have a better trajectory than Jay ever had with the Twins.