While similar predictions are offered for the White Sox, Fangraphs and PECOTA vary greatly on their expectations for the Cubs

With the start of the 2025 MLB season just over a month away, official statistical projections for the upcoming season have been released, painting quite a different picture for the Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Sox.

The projections, released by Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus, respectively, are released annually ahead of each season and project each team’s win-loss record, along with statistical projections for individual players.

The White Sox, who are coming off the worst season in modern MLB history with a record of 41-121, were predicted by both publications to show a modest improvement in 2025, though they’re clear that no one should be expecting October baseball on the South Side.

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections have the White Sox remaining in last place by a significant margin, though doing so with a 21-game improvement over their 2024 season with a projected record of 62-100.

PECOTA predicts a step back for the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians, who are projected to finish below .500 after making the postseason in 2024, while forecasting a division win for the Minnesota Twins at an 86-76 record, meager for a typical division winner.

PECOTA shows much more optimism on the North Side, with Baseball Prospectus projecting a significant improvement for the Cubs in 2025 with a 91-71 record and first-place finish.

Baseball Prospectus predicts the Cubs will run away with an unremarkable NL Central, projecting a second-place Brewers team to finish 10 games behind the Cubs with a .500 record.

Fangraphs does not hold the same optimism for the Cubs, predicting a similar finish to the 2024 season with an 84-78 record.

Despite the more muted prediction for the Cubs, Fangraphs still believes the North Siders will end the season as NL Central champions, with the outlet projecting an identical 81-81 record for a second-place Brewers team.

As for the White Sox, Fangraphs is forecasting a similar improvement for the South Siders, going a game further than PECOTA by predicting a 22-game improvement, which would spare the White Sox from 100 losses with a 63-99 record.

PECOTA projects the White Sox will not be the worst team in the MLB as well, predicting a ghastly 55-107 season from the Colorado Rockies, who lost 101 games last season and did little to supplement their roster this offseason.

Fangraphs is significantly more optimistic on the Rockies, predicting a 65-97 finish while still pitting the White Sox as MLB’s worst team with a record two games worse.

Both outlets agree on the Los Angeles Dodgers being the league’s best team in the upcoming season, with PECOTA projecting a 103-59 record while Fangraphs predicts a more measured 97-65 finish.