With the fourth overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, the New England Patriots are likely to miss one of the blue-chip prospects in the class.

Abdul Carter and Travis Hunter are both unlikely to make it to fourth overall. In such a scenario, a trade-back would be a desired outcome.

However, according to an article from Mike Reiss of ESPN, the odds of a team trading down don’t look great.

The basis for this claim comes from a pre-draft press conference from Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht. Licht said,

“Because the draft is pretty leveled out at a certain point, so you might be able to get the same level of player in the second round as the fourth round at certain positions.”

With the prospects after Carter and Hunter having similar values, there isn’t anyone worth trading up for.

Shedeur Sanders is the only trade-up candidate, and with teams not being sold on him, New England is unlikely to find a trade partner.

This news is a tough blow for the Patriots.

The fourth overall pick could be the first selection after the top players go off the board.

In most draft classes, fourth overall would hold immense value.

But, with the talent pool spread out and deep for this draft class, fourth overall doesn’t carry as much weight as it normally does.

With this latest report, the Patriots trade down odds don’t look great.

The most likely options at fourth overall are Will Campbell, Armand Membou, Tetairoa McMillan, or Mason Graham. While all solid options for the Patriots, the drop-off in talent compared to Carter and Hunter is stark.

The best-case scenario for New England was a trade-down if Carter or Hunter weren’t available.

It would allow the Patriots to still get someone in the second tier of players while adding extra draft capital. But, that scenario seems very unlikely following this report.

Mike Vrabel and the Patriots’ front office might not find a trade-down partner on the first night of the draft.

Sticking and picking at fourth overall, while missing Carter and Hunter, is looking like the most likely scenario for New England during the 2025 NFL Draft.