Let’s get this out of the way, right up top: the New York Yankees’ chances of winning the 2025 World Series have fundamentally decreased after the news that Gerrit Cole will miss the season following Tommy John surgery. Giancarlo Stanton’s lengthy absence will also negatively affect them, no matter how long it lasts.

The Yankees will still be highly competitive. They may even be able to use the DH spot more proactively, rotating players in and out of Stanton’s vacancy to keep them fresh. They might win the East. They might even win the World Series! Without Cole as their fire-breathing ace, though, they will be worse off. There is no immediate pivot to fill the hole, and every pitcher being forced to step up a level leaves their depth lacking.

Fans with big dreams have immediate designs on making a pre-Opening Day splash for a familiar ace, like Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins, or Michael King/Dylan Cease of the San Diego Padres. That isn’t a realistic desire, based on timing alone, but it’s been made even more unlikely by AJ Preller of the Padres preferring to stay pat and taking his pitchers officially off the market this weekend.

The Yankees certainly could wait until the midsummer trade deadline to make a move of any kind, but competition will be frenzied by July. The acquisition cost will likely rise even further than where it currently stands, with potential partners acutely aware of the Yankees’ desperation. They could sign a free agent body like Kyle Gibson or Lance Lynn, but is either pitcher guaranteed to be more effective in a pinch than non-roster invitee Carlos Carrasco?

The Yankees can’t trade for an ace, and don’t have much user for a flyer. What they could use, however, is a solid mid-rotation arm with potential upside. Someone who’s less volatile than Luis Gil/Carlos Rodón, and someone whose reliability can be prized while Clarke Schmidt works his way back. Across the entire league, Erick Fedde of the St. Louis Cardinals seems to fit the bill the clearest. Maybe the Yankees can swing a trade for him, and even add an offensive supplment/bench piece into the deal?

This Yankees-Cardinals trade for Erick Fedde can’t replace Gerrit Cole, but adding guys is always nice

Fedde, coming off a 5.6 bWAR season split between Chicago and St. Louis after returning from overseas, is pitching in final year of a two-year contract and making $7.5 million to do so. In order to obtain him, maybe the Yankees could dangle a pair of prospects and an approximate salary match in Trent Grisham, who’s making $5 million this season as a fourth outfielder?

Cardinals Receive: No. 12 Prospect Cam Schlittler, No. 18 Prospect Gage Ziehl, OF Trent Grisham

Yankees Receive: RHP Erick Fedde, 1B/DH Luken Baker

This would give the Cardinals an offensive upgrade (and representative defender) to replace Michael Siani, currently 1-for-25, in the outfield mix, if needed (they could roll with Lars Nootbaar/Victor Scott II/Brendan Donovan/Jordan Walker). Versatility is not the Cardinals’ problem. Finding consistent power is.

They’d also get a pair of young, controllable arms, which they’ve been reportedly searching for every time they’ve dangled the likes of Fedde, Steven Matz and Ryan Helsley this offseason. Baker is a 28-year-old right-handed masher who’s yet to click at the MLB level (.175 in 40 at-bats last season), but is having an excellent spring. He’s not a Stanton replacement even in the furthest stretch of the imagination, but he’s another bench option with big country pop, and he’s a backup first baseman in case Ben Rice is the nominal starting DH.

Fedde, of course, is the real prize here. At least this represents something to chew on as we drive down the darkest timeline.