PECOTA projects the White Sox to win more games, but they have no hope of making the playoffs.
The Chicago White Sox are finally catching up to the rest of the league.
Baseball Prospectus, known for its sabermetrics study of baseball, recently published its annual Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA), which forecasts an MLB team’s season based on previous player performance.
As of Feb. 9, the Sox are predicted to finish last in the AL Central with a 61-101 record and a zero percent chance of making the playoffs.
While the number of expected wins far exceeds bookies’ over/under lines, Chicago is still seen as one of the weakest teams. PECOTA predicts they will score 630 runs and allow 811. Since the Sox only scored 507 runs and gave up 813 in 2024, their projected stats aren’t very flattering.
The Sox aren’t the only team who have been prematurely judged.
The Marlins are expected to have a 62-100 record and are projected to score 615 runs and allow 787. And somehow, despite not setting the record for the most losses in baseball history, the Rockies are projected to be the worst team this year.
PECOTA projects that Colorado will finish the season 56-106 and give up a whopping 867 runs. Both the Marlins and Rockies have no chance of making the playoffs.
Stacking the Sox next to the Marlins and Rockies is appropriate.
While the Sox were one of the most active mid-market teams this offseason, no one knows how their prospects and newly acquired free agents will perform, especially with a new manager, bench coach, and hitting coaches.
Since the Marlins and Rockies made hardly any changes to their roster, it’s fair that they’re predicted to win roughly the same number of games as last year.
Being compared to the Marlins and Rockies may not seem like a compliment, but it’s a sign that the Sox are expected to bounce back. General manager Chris Getz has found a way to raise the bar for the Sox, and at this point there’s nothing else to do but be thankful for the progress being made.
So don’t expect the Sox to greatly outperform their PECOTA projection, but at least be happy that digestible baseball is coming back.
