4 Patriots Instantly on Thin Ice With Mike Vrabel as Head Coach
After a week of head coaching interviews, the New England Patriots officially announced that Mike Vrabel will be their 16th head coach in franchise history on Sunday.
Vrabel enters New England where they are coming off back-to-back four-win seasons with Bill Belichick and Jerod Mayo. The last time we saw Vrabel as a head coach was the 2023 season with the Tennessee Titans, where he spent six campaigns as HC.
With Vrabel making his triumphant return to Foxborough, it also means that several Patriots players and coaches likely won’t be with the team next season. Below, we’ll discuss who could be on thin ice heading into the offseason.
1. Alex Van Pelt
With the rumors swirling about Vrabel bringing Josh McDaniels back to New England as offensive coordinator, Van Pelt’s days in Foxborough are numbered.
When Mayo was fired last week by the Patriots, it was reported that Van Pelt was also out as offensive coordinator. However, Andrew Callahan of the Boston Herald and Mark Daniels of MassLive.com reported that the Krafts only fired Mayo and that the rest of the coaching staff and front office were intact.
After getting let go by the Cleveland Browns at the end of last season, Van Pelt entered a spot where he could help develop two young quarterbacks in Drake Maye and Joe Milton III. Both young quarterbacks showed promise this season, but the rest of the offense was a mixed bag.
The Patriots’ offense ended the regular season, ranked 30th in scoring (17 points per game), 13th in rushing (115.8 yards per game), and 32nd in passing (176.2 yards per game).
To be ranked near the bottom in scoring and passing is not conducive to winning in the NFL in 2025. Therefore, the Pats might need someone who can create more explosive plays in the passing game like Ryan Grubb, who was fired after one season as the OC in Seattle.
The Seahawks were ranked 28th in rushing (95.7 yards per game), which won’t cut it. But they were ranked eighth in passing (236.5 yards per game) and 18th in scoring (22.1 points per game).
That being said, there’s a chance Van Pelt could stay in New England as the QBs coach, given how close he and Maye are. However, that will be up to Vrabel’s discretion and what plan he sold the Krafts on to turn this program around.
2. Vederian Lowe
The 25-year-old offensive tackle was one of the biggest disappointments this season. The Pats’ offensive line wasn’t spectacular, but Lowe’s play did not help the beleaguered unit.
According to ESPN’s team win rates for pass rush, run stop, and blocking win rates, the Patriots were ranked 31st in pass block win rate (51%) and 32nd in run block win rate (67%) in 2024. As for Lowe, he struggled mightily at left tackle.
The 25-year-old lineman posted a 54 overall grade, a 45.8 run blocking, and 66.9 pass blocking among 141 qualified tackles on PFF. Lowe was penalized 13 times (132nd among 141 tackles) and allowed five sacks (112th).
Also, the 6-foot-5 lineman allowed 33 pressures (117th among 141 qualified tackles), which isn’t ideal for success. Lowe is still under contract for 2025 ($1.1 million cap hit) before becoming a free agent in 2026.
However, with such a small cap hit, New England could outright cut Lowe or trade him for draft capital. Remember, the Patriots have Caedan Wallace, who they spent a third-round pick on in the 2024 draft.
With a new regime taking over, one has to believe Wallace will get a shot to win the left tackle spot over Lowe in 2025. Wallace played in six games due to an ankle injury this season, placing him on injured reserve in October.
When he did play, Wallace’s advanced metrics weren’t special (52.5 pass block grade and 57.4 run block grade on PFF). However, the former Penn State standout showed he can play at left and right tackle, giving him the upper hand heading into the offseason.
3. Kyle Dugger
The 32-year-old Dugger did not play up to standard this season after signing a four-year, $58 million contract extension in the offseason.
The former second-round pick was coming off an impressive 2023 season, which led to the fanbase clamoring for Dugger to get an extension.
He had 109 combined tackles, seven pass deflections, six tackles for loss, five quarterback hits, two interceptions, and 1.5 sacks. Dugger possessed a 68.8 completion percentage, an 82.7 pass rating allowed when targeted, and gave up one touchdown.
However, the former Lenoir-Rhyne star took a huge step back in 2024. Dugger only had 84 combined tackles, eight tackles for loss, four pass deflections, a quarterback hit, and a sack.
The veteran defensive back also struggled in pass coverage, which was alarming for Patriots fans. Dugger had a career-worst 76.1 completion percentage allowed on targets, a 137.4 pass rating when targeted, and allowed six receiving TDs.
The 28-year-old safety posted a terrible overall grade on PFF (44.3 – 157th among 170 qualified safeties) and a dismal pass coverage grade (34.8 – 163rd among 170 safeties). ‘
It will be tough for the Pats to move Dugger as he has a $15.2 million cap hit in 2025. However, he has a potential out in his contract for 2026, so they can explore the opportunity either in the offseason or at the trade deadline.
4. Eliot Wolf
With the Patriots moving on from Mayo and hiring Vrabel as the next head coach, some fans wondered what would happen with Eliot Wolf.
Wolf was named the team’s executive vice president of player personnel this past offseason after spending the previous two years as the director of scouting. However, Wolf did not do a good job in Year 1 as the de facto GM as the Patriots had one of the worst rosters in the NFL.
Usually, when a head coach is fired, the organization also cleans house by removing the GM too, see the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Pats aren’t removing Wolf, but they are adding someone new to the front office structure, who was a preferred choice of Vrabel. Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports reported on Sunday that New England is expected to hire Ryan Cowden, who is the New York Giants personnel advisor.
Robinson adds Wolf will retain personnel power, but the dynamics will be interesting. Cowden was the Titans’ director of player personnel and interim general manager during Vrabel’s tenure in Tennessee.
It will be interesting to see what Cowden’s responsibilities are as Wolf didn’t shine in the roster management department this season. New England had one of the worst rosters in the NFL and the 2024 draft class wasn’t spectacular.
Their best player from the class was Maye, which is important. But it’s hard to pinpoint who was the next best guy in New England’s draft class.
Therefore, New England must do a much better job drafting and spending money in free agency to upgrade their roster. They have cap space to work with, it’s up to Wolf to find the best pieces to help speed up this rebuild.
