If you’re someone keeping tabs on the Green Bay Packers’ advanced stats, you were probably riding high going into last week’s game against the Chicago Bears. The cornerback unit, without Jaire Alexander, seemed to turn a corner.
For example, Pro Football Focus had cornerback Eric Stokes, who was splitting time at outside cornerback with Carrington Valentine and Keisean Nixon, only giving up 26 yards from Week 11 through Week 17. That didn’t entirely tell the whole story, though.
Since the second half of the Miami Dolphins game in Week 13, the Packers have been peppered over the middle of the field — zones that outside cornerbacks are rarely asked to cover — not the perimeter. Most of the yards that Green Bay gave up in their Week 14 and Week 17 losses to the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings, respectively, were inside the numbers.
With that being said, it’s safe to question how meaningful numbers like yards allowed for the outside cornerbacks have been in the second half of the season when the middle of the field has been what opposing offenses have wanted to attack. This weekend, we’re going to find out.
Unlike the divisional teams that the Packers have struggled against, the Philadelphia Eagles’ passing game is based on throws to the perimeter to star receivers A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. Brown is almost exclusively split outside in the offense while Smith is more times than not lining up outside. That’s very different than how the Lions and Vikings use receivers like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, as they those teams tend to play their star receivers either in the slot or use them in condensed sets where the outside receiver is essentially in a slot position.
If you need a visual representation for how different the Eagles’ passing game is compared to what the Packers see in the NFC North, just look at these two spray charts. The first shows where Hurts attacked the field in Week 1 versus Green Bay. The second is where Lions quarterback Jared Goff threw the ball in their second matchup this season.
So while we might not have gotten good data on the talent level of the Packers’ outside cornerbacks recently, because of the style of offenses that they’ve played, we’re almost certainly going to get an answer on how much they’ve improved since Week 1 this week.
Recently, the Packers have lost Alexander for the season and have ditched Stokes in favor for Carrington Valentine and Keisean Nixon. Last week, according to NFL Pro, Valentine and Nixon played a combined 109 snaps of outside cornerback against the Bears compared to just 3 for Stokes. Prior to last week, the trio had been used in a rotation, with Nixon playing some slot reps — a role that rookie second-round pick Javon Bullard how now taken over.
You cannot stress enough how important the performance of Valentine and Nixon will be this week, especially considering that the Packers were down two safeties — Evan Williams and Zayne Anderson — just last week. Keep an eye on the Valentin/Nixon vs. Brown/Smith matchups, as there’s a good chance the results of those battles will decide the wild card round game.