After 17 weeks of football and an 11-5 record, we know that the 2024 Green Bay Packers are a good football team. They have a top-10 offense in almost all major statistical categories, a defense that has steadily improved throughout the season, and a special teams unit that is no longer the liability it has been in years past.

However, one thing is equally clear: The Packers have not proven they can beat any of the elite teams currently ahead of them in the NFC.

With one week to go until the postseason, the Packers did themselves no favors in terms of seeding by losing to the Minnesota Vikings. They now face the possibility of traveling to Philadelphia in the first round of the playoffs. Green Bay’s five losses this season have come against just three teams – the same teams they find themselves chasing in the standings.

They’ve lost twice to the Detroit Lions and Vikings and once to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1. Detroit, Minnesota, and Philadelphia have a combined 40-7 record this season and have firmly established themselves as the cream of the NFC crop. The Packers are 11-0 against everyone else. Still, their inability to beat these top-tier teams looms large, leaving Matt LaFluer’s squad without a real signature win this season.

Green Bay has beaten the 10-6 Los Angeles Rams, who didn’t have Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and a 9-7 Houston Texans team that has not lived up to their preseason expectations. Otherwise, the Packers have folded against all other quality opponents.

However, that’s not to say they haven’t been close. The Packers were within five points in four of those five losses and had legitimate chances to win. They’ve always been close, but not close enough. These narrow defeats highlight that Green Bay has the talent to compete with elite teams but cannot play mistake-free football and finish games. By contrast, their elite opponents consistently capitalize on opportunities and put teams like the Packers away.

So, what is separating the Packers from the NFC’s elite teams?

Slow Starts

Slow starts have been the main reason the Packers have failed to secure victories against elite opponents. In their first matchup against the Vikings, the Packers fell behind 28-0 before scoring their first touchdown with 15 seconds left in the half. A few weeks later, they managed only three points in the first half at home against Detroit.

Surely, they would start faster in the rematches, right? Wrong. In the first half of those rematches they would only score seven points on the road against Detroit and only three points this past Sunday against Minnesota.

In all four losses to Minnesota and Detroit, Green Bay led for only 23 minutes combined – or 10% of the total time. Adding the Philadelphia loss to the equation, the Packers have led their elite opponents for only 17% of the total time across five contests. They haven’t put points on the board early, shifting pressure onto their opponents and holding a lead. That isn’t a winning formula, especially against upper-echelon teams.

Missed Opportunities

Great teams make their opponents pay for mistakes.

In Green Bay’s Week 1 loss to the Eagles, it wasn’t so much a slow start that hurt them but rather their inability to capitalize on opportunities. The Packers’ defense forced two takeaways on Philadelphia’s first two possessions deep in their territory but managed only two field goals.

Instead of jumping out to a commanding 14-0 lead, they settled for a 6-0 advantage. In a game they ultimately lost by five points, these missed opportunities hold the Packers back from reaching the level of their elite counterparts.

The Packers Are Beating Themselves

Self-inflicted mistakes are another recurring issue separating the Packers from the NFC’s elite. It could be Jordan Love throwing a head-scratching interception directly to Detroit’s Kerby Joseph or key players like Josh Jacobs and Christian Watson fumbling the ball and costing the team points. Regardless, the Packers are beating themselves. Below is a look at that Love interception. We just haven’t seen Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, or Jalen Hurts put the ball in danger like that this year.

Rising star left tackle Zach Tom had a costly red-zone penalty that also took points off the board. Mistakes from top contributors have cost the Packers all season. These are errors the Lions, Eagles, and Vikings have largely avoided.

Your best players must be the difference in winning critical matchups, not the reason for losing them. So far, Green Bay’s stars have not risen to the occasion in their five losses.

Could the Packers Turn Things Around In the Playoffs?

How close are the Packers to competing with the NFC’s best? If you ask the players in the locker room, they seem to think they’re close, even if the product on the field suggests otherwise. Defensive leader Xavier McKinney echoed this sentiment after Sunday’s game. He admitted the team needs to start faster and play cleaner football.

When asked if the Packers are on the same level as the NFC’s elite teams, McKinney candidly replied:

“I want to say yeah, but, right now the story is, we haven’t beaten those teams. So I can’t sit up here and say, ‘Yeah, we’re on the same level,’ if we ain’t beat them. So in order to be on the same level, you gotta beat these teams.”

The team’s leaders recognize the issues, and it’s up to them to drive the necessary changes.

We know the Packers are a good football team. They clinched a playoff spot three weeks before the end of the regular season, which is no small feat. They put up over 30 points in five consecutive games, the longest streak in the NFL this season.

How long their postseason run will last remains to be seen, especially with the daunting task of winning four games on the road against elite opponents. Maybe the Packers were saving their best for inevitable postseason rematches with some the Eagles, Vikings, or Lions. We know that they have the talent to compete with and ultimately beat those clubs. Or maybe they’re simply a good football team that’s close, but not close enough.