It wasn’t the offensive upgrade Philadelphia Phillies fans expected this offseason.
The Phillies signed former Minnesota Twins outfielder Max Kepler to a one-year, $10 million deal. Despite never playing the position, he’ll be the everyday left fielder, with Brandon Marsh shifting back to center field.
The move raised eyebrows among the fanbase for good reason. Kepler, like Marsh, is a left-handed bat who feasts on righties but struggles against southpaws. He’s also not the power-hitting outfielder the Phillies reportedly coveted this winter.
Kepler’s 2024 numbers tell a sobering story: a career-worst .682 OPS, 91 OPS+, and just eight homers in 105 games before a knee injury derailed his season in September.
“He’s a bounce-back candidate at this stage of his career,” reports The Athletic’s Aaron Freeman. “The Phillies are betting on rediscovering the second-half 2023 version of Kepler that posted a 149 OPS+ in 66 games, rather than the 2023 (91 OPS+), first-half 2023 (86 OPS+), 2022 (92 OPS+), and 2021 (98 OPS+) versions that were each below average offensively and prone to missing time with nagging injuries.”
The track record isn’t exactly encouraging. In his decade with the Twins, Kepler posted six full seasons with an OPS+ below 98. His best season came in 2019, when he hit 36 homers, with an .855 OPS and 123 OPS+.
With Philadelphia likely done shopping for offensive help in free agency, one MLB insider is pushing for a more dramatic solution.
MLB insider wants Philadelphia Phillies to trade for this All-Star outfielder
The Athletic’s Jim Bowden isn’t sold on the Kepler signing, citing the steep price for a player with a career .655 OPS against lefties and a .237/.318/.429 slash line.
His proposed solution? A franchise-altering trade.
“I would still like to see the Philadelphia make a trade with the [Chicago] White Sox for Luis Robert Jr. and go with an outfield of Nick Castellanos in right field, Robert in center and Brandon Marsh in left, then use Kepler and Johan Rojas as extra outfielders/plus defenders in right (Kepler) and center and left field (Rojas),” writes Bowden.
Robert, a 2023 All-Star who launched 38 home runs that season, has battled injuries in three of his five years with Chicago. His 2023 numbers declined sharply: .223/.278/.379, 14 home runs, and an 87 OPS+.
The White Sox, coming off a Modern Era-worst 121 losses and having already dealt ace Garrett Crochet, might be motivated sellers. Robert’s contract adds another layer: he’s owed $15 million for 2025, with $20 million club options for 2026 and 2027.
The financial implications are significant. According to Fangraphs, the Phillies’ estimated 2025 luxury tax payroll sits at $307.6 million, already exceeding the highest threshold of $301 million. Any additional salary would incur a 110% tax on every dollar over the limit.
Related: MLB insider reveals Philadelphia Phillies surprisingly putting All-Star Alec Bohm on trading block
