The Green Bay Packers have punched their ticket to the postseason with a Monday Night Football win over the New Orleans Saints. Now what? Obsessing over seeding scenarios!
For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll focus on the games that the Packers, Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders — the teams currently slated to play in the wildcard round — will be playing in the final two weeks of the season. Yes, there’s a chance that the Detroit Lions can drop down to a wildcard spot, but the lowest seed they can drop to in the postseason is the fifth seed — ahead of the Packers, who could finish no higher than the sixth seed in that scenario.
So how can Green Bay, currently the NFC’s sixth seed, rise to the fifth seed or drop to the seventh seed over the next two weeks?
Here’s everything you need to know about the Packers’ rooting interests for the remainder of the season.
How can the Packers rise to the 5th seed?
The only way Green Bay can get the top wildcard seed in the NFC is with the Vikings losing out and the Packers winning out.
With the Packers ahead of the Commanders in the NFC standings at the moment, their wins or losses wouldn’t be a factor in Green Bay’s destiny. This one is pretty cut and dry.
How can the Packers drop to the 7th seed?
If Green Bay loses to Minnesota, it’s about 50/50 whether or not they’ll be the final seed in the NFC.
Why? If the Commanders record more wins than the Packers over the next two weeks, then Washington will pass Green Bay due to tie-breakers, even though the teams haven’t played head-to-head.
There is one other scenario, where the Commanders win out and the Packers beat the Vikings but lose to the Bears in the season finale, which could kick Green Bay down to the seventh seed. So the Packers aren’t out of the woods if they do beat Minnesota, only very close.
On a high note, Green Bay will finish no lower than the sixth seed if they win their final two games of the season.
If you’d like to look at every possible result for the Packers, Vikings and Commanders in the final two weeks of the season and how it would impact Green Bay’s seeding in the playoffs, you can find that table below.
The final column in the table signifies which seed the Packers would own in the NFC playoffs if the squads in the corresponding rows win over the next two weeks.
So what should you, as a Packers fan, want to happen? Well, you want Green Bay to win and the other wildcard teams to lose. Wow, how illuminating.
Hopefully, though, this exercise helped you understand the landscape a little bit more so if things come a little off the rails then you’ll know what to expect in this playoff race.
Note: We did not consider a tie a possibility in these games. If someone ties, we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.