The Dallas Cowboys are moments away from kicking off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football. They learned just a few hours ago that they were eliminated from playoff contention after the Commanders took down the Eagles on a last-second touchdown.

It marks the first time in three years that Dallas won’t make the playoffs under Mike McCarthy. This season has been a disaster for myriad reasons, but the jury is still out if McCarthy will be back at the helm in 2025.

Jerry Jones has praised McCarthy more than usual over the last month. The Cowboys have won three of their last four games – all without Dak Prescott. Despite the kind words, though, Jones still hasn’t extended McCarty’s contract, which expires at season’s end.

Has Jones made up his mind? Or is he waiting to see how Dallas plays in the final three games before coming to a decision? These were among the questions tackled by the Football Night in America crew.

Former Cowboys coach Jason Garrett was in McCarthy’s shoes just a few years ago. Garrett was asked to predict the outcome and his answer feels spot on.

Former Cowboys coach Jason Garrett predicted Mike McCarthy’s future

What is Mike McCarthy’s status in Dallas? We discussed on FNIA. pic.twitter.com/vpMT7OUsa7

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) December 23, 2024

Garrett believes that McCarthy’s fate will be decided by the final three games. If they lose all three and finish 6-11, running it back with McCarty would be a hard sell to an agitated fan base. That would imply that Garrett thinks Dallas should retain McCarthy if they win two of three or are competitive in all three games.

It’s impossible to know what Jones is thinking, but Garrett’s analysis feels spot on.

While injuries have decimated the roster, losing three straight to the Buccaneers, Eagles and Commanders would be a brutal way to end the year given the team’s recent momentum. If that happens, McCarthy would have one playoff win in four years on the job. And he’d leave fans with a sour 6-11 taste in their mouth to boot.

While the Cowboys’ season effectively ended after Dak Prescott’s hamstring injury, let’s not forget how 2023 ended: a blowout loss at home to the No. 7 seed Packers. It was the worst home playoff loss in franchise history.

It was widely understood that McCarthy needed to, at worst, take Dallas to the NFC Championship Game this year to warrant an extension. And yet, they were eliminated from playoff contention with two weeks to spare.

Not many teams with the Cowboys’ injury luck would be making a beeline for the playoffs. However, the disappointment allows for a clean break if the team falls under expectations in the final three games.

That makes tonight’s game critical for McCarthy.