The calendar has flipped to July, and it’s still unclear how exactly the St. Louis Cardinals plan on handaling this month’s trade deadline. A surprisingly strong start put the team right on the Chicago Cubs’ heels in the Central and smack in the middle of the NL Wild Card race, but they’ve now lost three in a row after a shutout loss on Wednesday afternoon to the Pittsburgh Pirates, and if the postseason started today, they’d be on the outside looking in.

So, what is this team exactly? Will it buy and try to make a push for October? Will it play things a bit more safely and continue emphasizing its up-and-coming core? No one’s quite sure, not even president John Mozeliak. But no matter what path the Cardinals decide to take in a few weeks’ time, moving closer Ryan Helsley could make some sense. A pending free agent who turns 31 later this month, he’s the team’s most obvious trade asset, and flipping a reliever they’re likely to lose anyway this winter would allow St. Louis to keep building for the future — without even necessarily compromising their ability to win for the rest of 2025.

There’s just one problem, though: Helsley just hasn’t been pitching up to his All-Star form this season, and as the deadline approaches, concerns about his profile moving forward could scare prospective buyers away.

Ryan Helsley’s regression could cost Cardinals at the trade deadline

Helsley was one of the very best relievers in baseball last season, but his numbers are down across the board in 2025 — from his ERA (3.41) to his WHIP (1.41) to his strikeout and whiff rates. He’s still throwing about as hard as ever, but batters are having a ton more success, and he allowed at least one run in four of his eight appearances during the month of June.

The main problem? His fastball, long his bread and butter but which has allowed a .429 batting average against this year. For a two-pitch pitcher who relies on his 99+ mph gas, that’s simply not going to get it done. Maybe this is just a blip on the radar; relievers are notoriously volatile, especially over small sample sizes, and another team could look at Helsley and see one small tweak that could bring the All-Star back out. But unless he starts looking more like that pitcher over the next few weeks, he could find himself without a robust market, and that could leave the Cardinals holding the bag.

All of the above were reasons why many were calling on St. Louis to get a Helsley deal done over the winter, when he still had a full year of team control remaining and was coming off a dream 2024 campaign in which he led the NL in saves. With relievers, it’s almost always best to sell high; but the Cardinals opted to hold on to him, dissatisfied with what other teams were willing to pay. And now, sure enough, he’s come back a bit relative to what he was last season, especially with his marquee pitch.

The reliever market runs hot this time of year as a rule, so it’s still entirely possible that someone is willing to give up something of real value for a half-season of Helsley. And maybe the Cardinals get hot around the All-Star break and leave no doubt that this is a team worth investing in. More likely, though, is that this is a decent but certainly not great team that could use some more talent moving forward, talent that Helsley could help supply. You know, if anyone is willing to pay for him.