The MLB Draft is always filled with promise, potential, and projection. For the Minnesota Twins, the 2015 draft offered the rare luxury of a top-10 selection.

It was the kind of pick that could shape the franchise’s future for years to come. Unfortunately, it became a selection that fans and front-office members would rather forget.

Minnesota used that prized pick on Tyler Jay, a hard-throwing left-handed pitcher from the University of Illinois.

The decision and Jay’s subsequent arduous journey have come to represent one of the franchise’s biggest draft misses in recent memory.

At the time of the draft, there were reasons to be excited. Jay was dominant as a reliever for the Illini, emerging as one of the best college bullpen arms in the country.

During his final season in Champaign, he posted a 1.08 ERA with 76 strikeouts in just over 66 innings.

His mid-90s fastball and devastating slider made him an untouchable force in late innings, and his athletic delivery and build gave scouts hope he could transition to a starter in the professional ranks.

But there were red flags that now seem hard to ignore.

Illinois leaned heavily on Jay during his junior season, often using him for multi-inning saves and high-leverage situations multiple times a weekend.

That kind of workload for a college reliever carries risk, and in Jay’s case, the effects showed up not long after he turned pro.

The Twins believed Jay had the stuff to start in pro ball, a gamble that has burned many organizations trying to stretch dominant college relievers into rotation work.

The transition never clicked. He struggled to adjust to the routine, saw his velocity dip, and by 2017, injuries became the story.

A shoulder impingement cost him most of the season, and his 2018 campaign was equally forgettable. When healthy enough to pitch, he was ineffective, and any thought of him rising quickly through the system faded fast.

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By 2019, Minnesota was ready to move on.

The Cincinnati Reds outright bought his contract from the Twins in a rare transaction that showed how far Jay’s stock had fallen.

The change of scenery didn’t lead to a revival. He was released in 2020 during the pandemic shutdown, and at that point, his career appeared over.

But Jay soon discovered that part of his struggles came from something no coach or trainer could have foreseen.

He had eosinophilic esophagitis, a rare autoimmune disorder that affects the esophagus, making it difficult to eat, maintain weight, and build stamina.

The correct diagnosis and treatment arrived far too late to save his early professional career. Jay spent three years out of baseball, unsure if he’d ever return. But in 2022, he signed with the Joliet Slammers of the independent Frontier League.

It was a humbling stop for a former first-round pick, but Jay showed enough to catch the eye of the Mets, who offered him a minor league deal the following year.

The journey finally came full circle in April 2024 when Jay made his long-delayed major league debut with the Mets, nearly nine years after the Twins called his name on draft night.

It was a feel-good moment, even if it came in a different uniform and long after Minnesota’s plans for him had expired.

As of this season, he’s still toiling in Triple-A for the Milwaukee Brewers, chasing the big-league dream that seemed to vanish years ago.

The sting of that 2015 miss becomes even sharper when considering who the Twins could have selected instead. Austin Riley, who went 41st overall to Atlanta, is now one of the best power-hitting third basemen in baseball and a two-time All-Star.

Ian Happ, selected ninth by the Cubs, has three Gold Gloves and 20 rWAR for his career. Walker Buehler, taken 24th by the Dodgers, developed into a solid starter before Tommy John surgery sidelined him in 2022 and 2023.

Brandon Lowe, drafted in the third round by Tampa Bay, blossomed into an All-Star second baseman and could certainly add something to the Twins lineup.

Any one of those names would have changed the trajectory of the Twins’ rebuild. Instead, the sixth overall pick turned into a lost asset, a player who battled injury, role confusion, and a rare medical condition before finally scraping his way to the majors in a different organization.

To be fair, the Twins weren’t alone in missing on pitching that year.

Top arms like Dillon Tate (4th overall) and Carson Fulmer (8th overall) also failed to meet expectations. But that provides little consolation when so much offensive talent sat on the board.

Minnesota believed Jay could buck the trend of college relievers struggling to become pro starters. It was a gamble that ultimately failed to pay off.

In hindsight, the Jay pick represents a hard lesson about risk assessment and player development.

The choice to force a reliever into a starter’s path and the failure to foresee the physical wear Illinois had already placed on his arm helped turn a top-six pick into one of the great “what-ifs” in franchise history.

For Jay, the story is at least one of perseverance. He could have walked away from baseball after being cut loose in 2020.

Instead, he continued working, identified the source of his health struggles, and clawed his way to the big leagues. His story may yet have more chapters to write.

For the Twins, however, the chapter closed long ago, and it remains a painful reminder that in baseball’s most important draft moments, one wrong decision can echo for years.