As the Minnesota Twins navigate a complex payroll and ownership situation, the best course of action is to identify and develop young talent.
Young players are cheap filler on a major league roster, and if a player outperforms their salary, it could be the difference that turns a cash-strapped team into one that exceeds expectations.
The draft is a primary way to do that. Walker Jenkins is the most notable selection to come from Minnesota’s recent collection of first-round picks. Still, some take a little more time to find their footing, including Aaron Sabato.
Minnesota took Sabato in the first round of the 2020 draft, and he only reached Triple-A at age 26 this year. But with a breakout season building the hype, Sabato may be slugging his way back into Minnesota’s plans.
The Twins were in a different situation when they made that pick five years ago.
They were coming off the 2019 “Bomba Squad” season, and power was the key to building the roster. They had Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, and Brent Rooker in the pipeline and had set a then-major league record by smashing 307 home runs on their way to an AL Central title.
While the Twins were swatting dingers with ease, it wasn’t going to last forever. A juiced ball helped several teams turn the regular season into a home run derby in 2019, and Minnesota would eventually have to replace Nelson Cruz and C.J. Cron.
Sabato was a 6’1″, 230 lbs. first baseman from New York, and his power became apparent during his freshman season at North Carolina.
He hit .343/.453/.696 with 18 homers and 63 RBI as a UNC freshman and was off to a strong start in 2020, smashing seven homers in the first 19 games before the COVID-19 pandemic hit.
The raw power is what attracted the Twins to Sabato. Director of scouting Deron Johnson declared him one of the best offensive players in the draft.
“We thought he was the best offensive bat on the board, offensive player left on the board, just from every standpoint possible, going back to his season last year,” Johnson said after drafting Sabato. “If you look at him analytically, he lined up with some of the guys that went at the very top of the board.”
For reference, the 2020 draft included Spencer Torkelson, Heston Kjerstad, and Austin Martin, whom the Toronto Blue Jays selected and traded to the Twins in the José Berríos deal the following summer. However, Sabato hasn’t done much to distinguish himself from this disappointing group.
Sabato’s first four years in professional baseball were a nightmare. He started by hitting .202/.373/.410 with 19 homers and 57 RBI between Low-A Fort Myers and High-A Cedar Rapids in 2021. Still, he had a whopping 149 strikeouts in 107 games.
He reached Double-A Wichita in 2022, but his 22 homers and 75 RBI were accompanied by a .215/.336/.438 slash line and a 31.7% strikeout rate.
Swing-and-miss rates and poor contact were constantly a problem, and Sabato grinded through an oblique injury while hitting .199/.308/.336 in 90 games.
At age 26, Sabato was trending towards becoming a bust. However, an offseason dedicated to refining the physical and mental approaches he used at the plate put him in a better mindset.
“I worked really hard in the offseason just getting some little load sequencing stuff right,” Sabato told Twins Daily this week. “I really took that to heart towards like October through January, and then once I came in the spring, I just wanted better at-bats, just be more competitive in the box. And honestly, that was more of a mindset.”
The shift paid off immediately. Sabato crushed six homers during Spring Training and took his power surge back to Wichita. After hitting .305/.399/.574 with nine homers and 26 RBI in 39 games with the Wind Surge, Sabato was called up to Triple-A for the first time and is hitting .333/.415/.528 with a pair of home runs and nine RBI over his first 10 games.
Still, it isn’t just the stats that are impressive. According to FanGraphs, Sabato is posting a 96.6 mph average exit velocity and a 111.7 mph maximum exit velocity. He has a hard-hit rate (balls hit with an average exit velocity of 95 mph) of 71.4% and reduced his strikeout rate to 23.8%.
With only 10 games at the Triple-A level, it’s hard not to think regression is coming. Still, there’s a chance that Sabato could be a late bloomer.
Minnesota’s depth chart at first base is uninspiring. Ty France is on a one-year deal and is holding it down at the major league level. Jose Miranda is in Triple-A again and isn’t looking like a potential corner outfield prospect, and the Twins have major questions about who their first baseman will be in 2026.
While finding a new owner to help throw money at the problem is enticing, power is an expensive commodity on the free agent market.
If Sabato keeps hitting the way he has, he could be in line for a call-up during the second half of the season. If that goes well, he could leave a positive impression and return to the long-term vision the team had when they drafted him.