The Green Bay Packers have made the playoffs in each of the last two years, but have just one postseason win, indicating they still have some real strides to make if they are to truly compete for a Super Bowl. But what exactly do they need to be able to get there?
After examining the Super Bowl contestants since 2017 and using PFF’s overall team grades for each aspect of offense and defense, some themes emerged of the qualities most often required, and the worst a team has been in a given area and been able to make it to the big game.
Passing
On average, Super Bowl teams have had around the sixth best PFF grade for their passing, or essentially their quarterback play. The worst pass grade for a participant since 2017, and in fact the winner of the game, went to the Eagles this past season, who ranked 21st in the league.
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It is important to note Jalen Hurts missed time with injury and was rested late in the regular season though, so they would likely have ranked higher if not for those qualifiers.
It goes to show that teams with less than elite quarterbacks can win it all, provided they are elite in other areas, as Philadelphia was, ranking sixth in pass block grade, ninth in run grade and second in run defense, pass rush and pass coverage.
Jordan Love and Green Bay received the seventh best pass grade in 2023, putting them right on the cusp of the level required, but this dropped to 18th in 2024, which included some play by Malik Willis, as Love dealt with injuries.
Regardless, if Love can find consistency in year three as the starter and play his best football at the right time, the Packers have a quarterback capable of winning a Super Bowl with.
Pass blocking
The average pass blocking group required for winning the Super Bowl according to PFF’s grades has been 11th in the NFL, although the average winner ranked between seventh and eighth.
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The worst participant in that regard, the 29th ranked Bengals in 2021, had the second-best passer in Joe Burrow and the fourth-best receivers.
Tampa Bay in 2021 was the worst Super Bowl champion in terms of pass block grade since 2017, ranking 14th, but also had the second-best passer in Tom Brady, as well as the ninth best run grade.
Pass blocking is one of the areas the Packers truly excel, ranking 10th as a unit according to PFF in 2023, and third in 2024. They are plenty good enough at protecting the quarterback.
Receiving
Pass catching talent has become an increasingly important part of the best teams in the league, with the average receiving grade of Super Bowl contestants ranking sixth in the NFL since 2017.
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In that time, no team with a below average grade has made it, with the Chiefs the lowest at 15th in each of the last two years, winning one Super Bowl and losing the other. When they won in 2023, they had the sixth best quarterback in Patrick Mahomes and the seventh best pass blocking unit.
Green Bay’s pass catchers have been a bit of a high variance group, ranking sixth in 2023 and 16th in 2024 after a difficult year plagued with drops.
That said, they showed the ceiling in 2023 to be a group capable of winning it all, and with another year of experience under their collective belt, and two more top-100 picks in the mix, they appear to have what they need.
Rushing
On the offensive side, rushing ability seems to be the least important indicator of a team’s ability to make it to the Super Bowl. The average PFF run grade of participants since 2017 is 13th-14th, which is still a fairly high mark.
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The team with the worst runners of the football to make it to the Super Bowl, and indeed win it, were the Patriots in 2017, but Brady was the best passer in the league that year and New England also had the fourth best receiving grade and the fifth best run block grade.
There is a reason the running back position has become so undervalued, almost to the point of going too far before a recent renaissance. It is not crucial to have one of the best backfields in the league, and other areas of offensive football are therefore more valuable.
The Packers have more than enough to win the Super Bowl in terms of running backs, ranking 10th in 2023 and third in 2024 after the addition of Josh Jacobs.
Run blocking
A team’s ability to run block seems to be much more important than the ball carrier themselves, and somewhat surprisingly, team run block grade has been a consistent strength of Super Bowl teams, with the average contestant at around seventh in the NFL.
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The Bengals are the worst recent team to make the Super Bowl in terms of run blocking, ranking 20th, but again, they were excellent at quarterback and in terms of pass catchers.
Kansas City won in 2023 with the 16th best run blocking group, but they pass blocked well, ranking seventh, and of course had Mahomes.
This is the aspect the Packers are furthest away from being Super Bowl caliber, ranking 23rd in 2023 and 22nd in 2024.
They have made an effort to beef up their offensive line this offseason, bringing in one of the better run blocking guards in the league in Aaron Banks and drafting behemoth Anthony Belton in the second round.
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There are reasons for hope they can improve and get to the level required in 2025 and beyond, but right now run blocking looms as Green Bay’s weakest offensive facet.
Run defense
Flipping over to the defense, there are less true indicators of Super Bowl readiness, which is unsurprising, as offense is more predictable. That said, the last 18 participants have still been above average as a collective in every defensive area, including run defense.
The average contestant has ranked around 15th in run defense, albeit the average winner has ranked a little higher, between 12th and 13th. The Chiefs won the Super Bowl with the worst PFF run defense grade in the entire league in 2020, when they were at their explosive best on offense.
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The truth is that if you have an electric offense, it makes up for a lot. As far as the Packers and defending the run, they ranked 21st in 2023 and 24th in 2024, which is good enough based on the Chiefs example, but below the average mark recent participants have set.
Tackling
The Packers have tackled well on the whole, ranking 14th in PFF’s tackle grade as a team in 2023 and 4th in 2024. Tackling effectively does not correlate especially strongly with making it to the big game, with the average contestant ranking 15th in the league.
Atlanta ranked 31st when they made it in 2017 and did not do anything else exceptionally well on defense to the point of making up for it.
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Meanwhile, Philadelphia ranked 28th in both of the years they won the Super Bowl recently, although they were right at the top of the league in terms of pass rush and pass coverage both times, as well as run defense in 2024.
Green Bay’s tackling is not something that will prevent them from winning a championship, but it will not be the reason they do either.
Pass rush
Since 2017, the average Super Bowl participant has ranked between 11th and 12th in the NFL in PFF’s pass rush grade.
The Patriots made it in 2018 with the 31st ranked pass rush, but they were truly elite on offense, with the top graded passer and run block unit, the seventh best run grade and the ninth best pass block grade.
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Likewise, the Chiefs are the worst pass rushing team to win a championship, ranking 30th in 2020, but boasted a pristine offense as well as the league’s best special teams unit by PFF grade.
By that standard, Green Bay has a pass rush capable of winning a Super Bowl with, ranking 16th in 2023 and 17th a year ago, but it would need to be made up for by other aspects of the team and falls below the average required ranking.
Pass coverage
One of the most important factors for winning a title since 2017, the average participant has ranked right around sixth in defending the pass, and the 16th ranked Chiefs in 2020 are the worst team in PFF’s coverage grade to compete in, and win the Super Bowl.
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Even then, exceptional offense and special teams associated with that team are big factors in the league average pass coverage not mattering.
Green Bay ranked 18th in 2023, but under the tutelage of Jeff Hafley, despite an uncertain secondary and unspectacular pass rush, they ranked fourth in the league in PFF’s pass coverage grade last year.
Hafley’s ability to cook up not only a competent defense, but an above average one, with a less than stellar cast at his disposal, gives the Packers the chance to compete for a championship with the current group.
Special teams
The average special teams unit of a Super Bowl participant has ranked around 13th in the NFL in recent years, but some poor special teams units have won it all, such as the Buccaneers in 2021, who ranked 30th.
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This is good news for the Packers, who have routinely turned out some of the worst special teams in the league, ranking 28th and 32nd since 2023. However, the Bucs were excellent in a number of both offensive and defensive categories to cover it up.
So on the whole, where does Green Bay need to improve in order to be capable of getting to the Super Bowl?
For starters, their run blocking has to improve. Banks being what the Packers think he is would go a long way to achieving that, while Elgton Jenkins replacing Josh Myers at center could also strengthen the line in general.
After that, the “easiest” way for them to get over the hump is if Jordan Love plays like a top five-ish quarterback.
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It sounds much simpler than it is, but if Love can hit the heights he showed in the second half of 2023 and maintain them, it can make up for a mediocre run defense, pass rush and special teams and allow Green Bay to compete for a title even if those groups do not improve a bit.
If Love does not get to that level, the pass rush, run defense and defense as a whole will likely need to become elite to take the Packers to a championship.
However, if their special teams play remains as poor as it has been, they will need to become closer to elite on both offense and defense to avoid it coming back to bite them and potentially decide a close playoff game, as has happened in the past.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: What Packers need to win a Super Bowl: Where must they improve?
