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Dalton Kincaid of the Buffalo Bills reacts against the Denver Broncos during the fourth quarter during the AFC Wild Card Playoffs at Highmark Stadium on January 12, 2025.
The Buffalo Bills have adeptly found replacements for wide receivers that have departed. But thus far, Dalton Kincaid hasn’t found a way to challenge Dawson Knox for the Bills’ tight end spot.
But Kincaid may need change that if he has hopes of sticking around Josh Allen and Buffalo past his rookie contract.
Kincaid was singled out by a popular YouTube sports analyst Brandon Perna as Buffalo’s “make or break” performer for the 2025 NFL season.
Buffalo’s first-round pick from the 2023 NFL Draft out of Utah, Kincaid is coming off a 44-catch season with just 448 yards and two touchdowns in 2024, narrowly edging out Knox for the lead among Buffalo tight ends.
Why Is This A Make Or Break Year For Dalton Kincaid?
It is not that Kincaid has been bad in his career. He finished second on the Bills in catches and third in yards for the AFC runners-up.
But Kincaid regressed in 2024, posting fewer catches and yards than they did in his rookie season. It’s especially alarming since wide receiver Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis were not on the roster as they were in 2023.
“We all kind of expected Kincaid to become the X-factor in the Bills offense last year,” said Perna, a YouTube influencer on ThatsGoodSports. “He had a really nice season with 70 grabs and nearly 700 yards, but after missing some time in 2024, I don’t think we’ve seen him become that mismatch and that seam-breaker that we were expecting out of Utah.”
Perna cited Allen’s ability to spread the ball to different receivers and running backs in the Bills offense, which diminishes Kincaid’s output. But he also referenced Kincaid’s inefficiency, since he pulled in just 44 of 75 targets (58.6 percent).
“Kincaid had the second-most targets on the Bills, even while missing four games, but only had a catch rate of 59 percent,” Perna said. “That wasn’t even top-10 on Bills receivers.”
When you spend a first-round pick on a player, you expect him to keep progressing. But after Kincaid’s down 2024 season — he only had six catches on nine targets in three playoff games too — he has a lot to prove in 2025, especially while other comparable tight ends still outperformed him.
“Simply put, you expect more from a first-round tight end,” Perna said. “[Detroit Lions tight end] Sam LaPorta’s numbers also dipped in Year 2, but he still put up five more touchdowns and 300 more receiving yards than Kincaid.”
Who Else Needs To Perform For The Bills In 2025?
Aside from Kincaid, Perna called out wide receiver Keon Coleman as a player with something to prove in Buffalo this season.
“He has to be an impact player in the receiving game,” Perna said. “But I am not worried.”
Perna isn’t worried because of Coleman’s ultra-honest assessment of his rookie season, which he called “trash.”
Coleman was being harsh since he finished second on the Bills in yards (556) despite putting up only 29 catches in the regular season and was tied for second on the team in touchdowns (4). But he also had only three catches on eight targets for 22 yards in the playoffs.
Pat Pickens is an experienced sports writer and media personality who has written for outlets like NHL.com, the Associated Press, the New York Times and USA Today. He covers the NFL, NBA, NHL and NBA as a breaking news contributor at Heavy. More about Pat Pickens
