GREEN BAY – Green Bay Press-Gazette and PackersNews columnist Pete Dougherty responds to reader questions as the Green Bay Packers prepare to visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night.
Here are excerpts from the full story related to questions about the Packers’ upcoming offseason.
JP of Tahoe: Hi Pete. I can’t believe Gutey (Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst) will bring back (Jaire) Alexander in ’25 and my question is what is Alexander’s contract status in 2025? Is that his last year of his current deal? Could Gutey get a third-round pick for No. 23?
Dougherty: I wrote a column about the cap and possible offseason moves last week. I went into the research thinking they’ll very likely cut Alexander, but I now think the odds are better than 50-50 they won’t. Alexander is scheduled to make $17.5M in salary and bonuses next year (he’s also under contract for ‘26). It’s a lot of money, but it’s not outrageous for that position. His injury history the last four years — he’s missed 28 of the 62 games they’ve played over that time — argues very strongly for moving on. He turns 28 in February, so he’s not young anymore, though not quite old either. And if the Packers cut him they’ll save about $7.2M on on the cap. On the other hand, the Packers have real issues at CB, and his absences are noticeable. The free agent market as it stands for the offseason is weak at that position, nothing close to the CB equivalent of Xavier McKinney’s or Josh Jacobs’ though you never know who might get cut as a cap casualty. Still, anybody getting cut is cut for a reason. So those are generally stopgap-type guys. I’m assuming they’ll sign a veteran CB and draft at least two. But they can’t count on hitting on both picks (if it’s two) and there will be growing pains with young CBs. I could see Gutekunst biting the bullet and going one more season with Alexander. It would be risky because of his health, and they have to make sure they add several players at that position, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they brought Alexander back, put it that way. He’s definitely fragile, and we’ll have to see how the rest of the season goes. But he’s still a good player when he plays. It’s just such an important position, and this is a much closer call than I was thinking it would be earlier in the season. Just guessing, but I don’t think they’d get a D3 for him, teams aren’t going to want to give up a top 100 pick and also take on that contract for a guy who’s missed as many games as he has.
Doug: Based on the overall performance of the team, what area is the top focus heading into the offseason? CB or edge rusher or even more LBs? Can you conceive a position where they would use No. 1 on offense?
Dougherty: It’s a close call between CB and pass rusher, though pass rushers are harder to find and can affect the quarterback more, so I’d say pass rusher. I’ve seen a lot of criticism of the linebackers recently, especially because they got picked on this last game. But I’m not nearly as down on that group as others are, and I don’t think it’s that high a draft priority except for depth (i.e., later rounds). For one thing, I think they’ve missed Edgerrin Cooper quite a bit while he’s been out because of the hamstring. Yes, he makes his share of rookie mistakes, but he’s a very talented player who makes plays at and behind the line of scrimmage that none of their other LBs can make, he’s a good blitzer, and he’s pretty good in coverage too. He returned to practice Wednesday so might be back this week. As I’ve said in previous chats, I’m really intrigued by Ty’Ron Hopper. In the two preseason games he played he added a physical dimension the Packers haven’t had at that position going back to at least Desmond Bishop. I’m guessing he’s going to be a starter next year, and he could end up being a good player and help make them a more physical defense, at least the early signs in the preseason left open that possibility. Quay Walker will be back next year, and I do wonder if they’ll move him to strong-side linebacker and have Hopper play in the middle, and maybe use Walker in the middle just on obvious passing downs. So there’s three pretty talented players right there. Now, Isaiah McDuffie and Eric Wilson will be free agents in the offseason, so one or both could be gone. That means the Packers will need depth, though they could probably sign a cheap veteran to be their No. 4 LB, so they wouldn’t have to use a high pick on one. And maybe Wilson will be that cheap veteran. McDuffie might cost a little more, so maybe they’ll be more likely to move on. Or maybe his market will be soft and he’ll return on a one-year deal so he can hit the market again in ’26. But overall, I think they have some talent going forward at LB with Cooper and Hopper. But as far as pass rushers and CBs, I’m thinking they’ll draft at minimum two at both spots, plus sign at least one guy at each spot in free agency, though when I looked through the prospective free agents last week it was not very good at either position, no McKinney or Jacob quality guys there.
Ryan: To me it seems that Gutey’s strategy on first-round picks is fundamentally flawed. He seems to go with non pro-ready projects with high upside rather than lower upside pro-ready prospects. This wastes the advantage of having high-performing rookies on rookie contracts. By the time guys like (Rashan) Gary, (Jordan) Love or hopefully LVN (Lukas Van Ness) perform up to their selections, it is year 3 or 4 of the contract and they need to be paid with only 1 year of high performance. You end up being in tough positions where you feel obligated to pay guys (like Love or Gary) at top of market without a ton of evidence showing they deserve the contract. You also can’t depend on any first-round pick rookies to make immediate impacts with the team with this strategy. They seem to delve too far in this direction in my opinion.
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Dougherty: Not saying you’re wrong because it’s a very valid criticism, and I’m sure there are people in the league who would agree with you. But I don’t have as much a problem with picking potential and traits over production, because either way there’s very much a crapshoot element to the draft. The edge rushers taken not long after Gary were Brian Burns, Montez Sweat and LJ Collier. Burns has been pretty good and got paid a lot, but he has only 15 sacks in the last 29 games, basically a sack every other game, or nine a year. Sweat had one big season but has 4½ sacks this year and had only six in each of the previous two seasons. Collier has 6½ sacks in his career. Gutekunst could have drafted Jeffery Simmons on the inside instead, he’s a dominant player and yes, should have been the pick, but there were injury and character concerns with him coming out. As for Van Ness, the next edge taken after him was Will McDonald by the Jets, and he had only three sacks last year but has 10 this year, so the early signs suggest he might have been the better pick. Won’t know for sure for another year or maybe two. As I said, I can’t say I have a big issue with emphasizing traits, because when you’re picking in the first round, more often than not you’re looking to strike it rich and find a guy who tilts the field in your direction even if it takes some time. It takes talent to be that kind of player. What I question more is always going so big at edge rusher. Gutekunst might have to think about taking a smaller, more explosive guy to have at least one on the roster. He definitely has a type at that position, 255 to 270 pounds, wants them to be big enough to stop the run and to play in the Green Bay winters. I get it. But pass rush is so important I could see taking a smaller guy if he’s explosive enough. He wouldn’t have to play full time, could just rotate in and play on passing downs. That’s an important enough role that it would be worth not playing a guy full time, even for a first-round pick. Pass rush is critical. Overall, I get what you’re saying and make no claims that I’m sure I’m right on this, but I get why Gutekunst values traits, he’s trying to hit a home run. Great players win games, and it’s worth waiting a couple of years if that’s what it takes, IMHO. He just hasn’t found one yet.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Packers mailbag: Readers want to know about offseason moves