It’s tough to take issue with the Philadelphia Phillies’ rotation right now. Philly’s 3.47 starter’s ERA is the fifth-best in baseball, and they lead the league by a mile in strikeouts (the next-closest team, the Kansas City Royals, are as close to the Arizona Diamondbacks in seventh place as they are to the Phillies in first).
But those strong overall numbers mask a glaringly weak link: veteran righty Aaron Nola. Nola took one on the chin against the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday night, allowing nine runs on 12 hits while striking out just two over 3.2 ugly innings. His ERA now stands at 6.16 for the season, and neither he nor the Phillies seem to have much of an answer for what’s gone wrong so far: “I don’t really have another answer for tonight, besides: ‘Terrible,'” Nola said after the game.
In a vacuum, Nola’s struggles wouldn’t be all that concerning. Again, Philly’s rotation has been excellent overall this season, and Zack Wheeler, Jesus Luzardo and Cristopher Sanchez give the team a top three that would rival just about anyone in the league. Ranger Suarez is now back from the IL, and top prospects Mick Abel and Andrew Painter give Dave Dombrowski two more bullets to fire at some point later this year.
The problem, however, is that Philly’s depth might not matter if it remains stubborn enough to keep running Nola out there in the face of all available evidence. The 32-year-old has bounced back from rough stretches before, and his track record has earned him a bit of leeway. But if he can’t turn it around, it’ll be time to have some tough conversations — conversations Thomson doesn’t seem willing to acknowledge.
Rob Thomson’s faith in Aaron Nola could come back to haunt Phillies
Perhaps even more concerning than Nola’s final line on Wednesday was just how long he was allowed to remain in the game. Philly’s offense spotted it an early 5-1 lead, and while it was the second game of a doubleheader, Luzardo’s seven strong innings in the matinee left the team’s bullpen still relatively fresh. And yet, Thomson rode with his veteran anyway, letting him get his brains beaten in before finally pulling the plug after the Cardinals had already grabbed the lead.
“With him, you always think that he’s going to find it,” Thomson told The Athletic by way of explanation. “And we’re right in the game.”
True enough, but nothing about how Nola’s pitched so far this year suggested a turnaround was imminent, and being right in the game certainly isn’t reason to let your starter continue to get torched. Plus, Thomson is, at least publicly, refusing to acknowledge any sort of concern.
“No,” Thomson said. “Because I think he’ll find it. You got to trust he’s going to find it. He’s going to work at it, that’s for sure. And he’s going to figure it out.”
Again, this is fair enough in the middle of May; the Phillies need Nola, and he’s earned the right to figure it out. But one of the main knocks on Thomson has been his loyalty to his guys, and how slow he can be to deviate from his preconceived notions at times. So what if, come the stretch run, Nola is still struggling? Will Thomson do what’s necessary, whether that’s bumping Nola from the rotation or treating him with a very quick hook? Or will he forgo his many other viable options in the name of deference to a veteran? If he chooses wrong, and the Phillies once again fall short in October, he could find himself out of a job.