Philadelphia Phillies pitching stalwart Aaron Nola is off to the worst start of his career. After surrendering a career-high 12 hits and nine earned runs in just 3⅔ innings during the Phillies’ 14-7 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals, Nola now stands at 1-7 with a 6.16 ERA and 69 ERA+.
Wednesday’s start revealed a particularly troubling pattern as Nola failed to put hitters away with two strikes. As The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reported, Nola had shown some improvement with a respectable 3.33 ERA in his previous four starts following an abysmal beginning to the season that featured diminished fastball velocity and a 6.65 ERA.
Those improvements evaporated against St. Louis. Nola allowed six two-strike hits to Cardinals hitters and has now surrendered 26 two-strike hits this season, second-highest in baseball behind only Atlanta Braves’ Chris Sale, according to Gelb.
“Opponents are hitting .229 with a .597 OPS against Nola in two-strike counts. Those numbers were .146 and .466 a season ago. Nola has never been this bad in two-strike counts,” reports Gelb.
Home runs have also plagued Nola, who has given up 11 homers in nine starts, including three against the Cardinals. He’s on pace to surrender at least 30 home runs for the third consecutive season.
“I don’t really have another answer for tonight, besides: ‘Terrible,’” Nola told Gelb.
The 31-year-old righty (who turns 32 next month) is in the second year of a seven-year, $172 million contract signed prior to the 2024 season – a massive financial commitment the Phillies will have difficulty absorbing if Nola doesn’t reverse course.
What makes this decline particularly concerning is Nola’s history as a reliable workhorse. Since 2015, he has made at least 32 starts six times, struck out over 200 batters five times, and pitched above 180 innings six times (not including the COVID-shortened 2020 season).
The underlying metrics suggest serious problems in 2025. According to Baseball Savant, Nola currently has career-worst figures in barrel percentage (9.4%) and hard hit percentage (43.6%), well above his career averages of 6.4% and 35.4%, respectively.
His expected ERA stands at 4.96 (19th percentile) and his expected batting average against is .284 (15th percentile) – both extremely poor marks. Perhaps most concerning, his fastball velocity has dropped to 90.1 mph (9th percentile), which is 1 mph slower than 2024 and more than 2 mph slower than 2021.
While the Phillies boast one of baseball’s strongest pitching staffs with Zack Wheeler, Jesus Luzardo and Cristopher Sanchez, their postseason aspirations may hinge on whether they can get their longtime ace back on track.
