Aaron Nola has seen his share of ups and downs in a Phillies uniform, but early in 2025, one issue has refused to go away. After a sluggish start to the season, concerns are mounting about the 31-year-old’s declining velocity and shaky command, both of which are proving to be real red flags for a rotation that’s counting on him.Through five starts, Nola is 0-5 with a 5.40 ERA, a 1.140 WHIP, and 37 strikeouts in 30 innings. But the stat that’s getting the most attention isn’t on the scoreboard: it’s on the radar gun. Nola’s fastball velocity has seen a dip to around 90 mph, the lowest average of his career at this point in the season. While he insists the dip is part of his usual early-season ramp-up, it hasn’t stopped opposing hitters from punishing mistakes.
Equally concerning is his inability to consistently get ahead in counts. Nola’s first pitch strike rate has dropped 56.3% this season, leading to deep counts, a higher amount of walks, and fewer strikeout opportunities. In fact, his walk rate has spiked to 8.7%, well above his career average of 6.4%
As ESPN’s Dave Schoenfield pointed out, this issue isn’t new; Nola has long battled inconsistency problems from year to year – stellar campaigns followed by statistical dips. But in 2025, his problems seem more mechanical and situational than superstitious.
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Still, it’s not all doom and gloom. Statcast metrics show Nola’s curveball remains a weapon, particularly in two-strike counts. His PutAway rate with the pitch is up to 26.5%, and he’s generating a 51% missed-swing rate, both improvements from last season. He’s also inducing softer contact on his sinker despite the velocity dip, suggesting he’s still locating well when ahead.
The Phillies need that version of Nola, the veteran who controls counts, commands the strike zone, and limits damage. With Zach Wheeler anchoring the top of the rotation, Nola’s role as No. 2 is crucial for Philadelphia’s postseason hopes.
The good news? Nola’s velocity typically climbs by midseason. The bad news? The Phillies can’t afford to wait too long. If the right-hander’s red flag doesn’t fade soon, it could derail more than just a win-loss record; it could change the entire complexion of Philadelphia’s season.
