DISCUSS: Before the Calendar Turns to May, are the Twins’ Playoff Hopes Dead?

It’s still early, but man, it’s getting late. Through their first 25 games, the 2025 Minnesota Twins were sitting on a rough 9-16 record.

What’s the historical precedent for teams with similar records making the playoffs?

Image courtesy of © John Rieger-Imagn Images

A few days ago, Twins Daily’s Matthew Lenz set the tone that the Twins were entering a do-or-die homestand against the White Sox and Angels. Five games (and four wins) later, one thing is clear: the Twins still face very long odds of making the playoffs.

Over the course of the Wild Card era (dating back to 1995), just four teams with the same record as the Twins or worse through 25 games made it to the postseason.

So, who were these four teams? What can we learn from them? And do the Twins stand a chance at making it five times in 30 years that a team who gets off to a rough start can right the ship and make it to October baseball? Let’s dig in.

The Division Winners

Funnily enough, the 2006 Twins were one of the four historical comps, starting with the same 9-16 record as the 2025 Twins. You might remember them.

Peak Johan Santana, rookie Francisco Liriano, the shambling remains of Brad Radke, and the ascendant Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Joe Nathan, not to mention the entire school of piranhas.

Now, this is an interesting comp, because there are some similarities to the 2025 Twins team.

The 2006 squad started slow, but was bolstered by youth: Liriano’s promotion in May; Pat Neshek was called up in June, and gave the team another late-inning arm out of the pen; and midway through the season, Nick Punto and Jason Bartlett replaced Juan Castro and Tony Batista. Offseason signing Dennys Reyes impressed, and vastly outperformed expectations.

The youth movement perfectly intersected the peaks of some talented veterans, and for much of the year, the 2006 Twins looked like a team of destiny.

Santana won the pitcher’s Triple Crown. Morneau was MVP. Liriano finished third in Rookie of the Year balloting.

Mauer, Santana, and Nathan all received MVP votes as well. Alas, things didn’t quite work out after Liriano’s devastating arm injury, but this team shows what’s possible when hope is alive, things break right, and there’s talent on the farm…

Also starting 9-16 was the 2015 Texas Rangers team. This was a classic worst-to-first fairytale season, the likes of which have led to World Series rings for a Twins team of yore.

They finished with 88 wins, off the backs of old friends Joey Gallo, Chris Gimenez, Chi Chi Gonzalez, and Sam Dyson. Oh, and actually good players like Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli, Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo, and Josh Hamilton.

They had four different players who received major awards votes, with Beltre and Fielder getting MVP votes, Shawn Tolleson getting down-ballot Cy Young votes, and Delino DeShields in the running for Rookie of the Year.

At the deadline, the Rangers swung big and traded for Cole Hamels and Jake Diekman, and both helped them down the stretch.

This team featured several players who had underperformed the year before taking significant steps forward, savvy trade additions, and clutch play down the stretch. They won the division on the final day of the season.

You might be saying to yourself “there’s no way any team worse than the 2025 Twins made the playoffs”. You would be incorrect.

Just last season, the Houston Astros started 7-18 before defeating mediocrity to obtain yet another division crown.

The 2024 Astros team was loaded with talent, featuring Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, and Ronel Blanco.They began the season pretty injured, missing pitching mainstays Justin Verlander, Kendall Graveman, and Lance McCullers.

They did get healthier as the season progressed, and also played to their actual talent level for the final three quarters of the season.

This team featured a cycle, a no-hitter, and a Silver Slugger award. Ultimately, this was a case of a good-not-great team making a strong trade deadline push, acquiring the help they needed to shore up their weaknesses in Yusei Kikuchi, and reliever Jake Ferguson, and getting high-end production from those receiving awards votes: Valdez, Alvarez, Kikuchi, and Altuve.

The Wild Card Team

There’s just one example of a team starting poorly and making the playoffs, despite not being the best team in their division.

Here’s the wild part. After going 7-18 through the first 25 games, the 2001 Oakland Athletics went 95-42 the rest of the way, en route to a 102-win season.

You might remember this team as well, as the book (and movie) Moneyball began with the impetus for the A’s to replace Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi, and Jason Isringhausen after all became free agents after the 2001 season. This team was loaded, though, as it also featured Miguel Tejada, Jermaine Dye, Barry Zito, Tim Hudson, and Mark Mulder.

They played better than .750 ball for the second half of the season, and by all rights should have been division winners had it not been for the record-setting Seattle Mariners, who won 116 games. Giambi won a Silver Slugger and came in second in MVP voting. Mulder and Hudson both finished in the top-6 of Cy Young voting in their first full season with the A’s.

Takeaways

Now, having just four examples in 30 years of a team off to a rough start making the playoffs is not ideal. But, four is not zero.

I’m not going to tell you that hope is dead; it’s not — baseball fandom is about hope. But, the head of the needle the Twins need to thread is shrinking, and rapidly. What will the Twins need to have a realistic chance?

There are a few key pieces that are true for all of the above teams.

First, they were pretty loaded with talent at the top of their roster, guys who can carry a team for stretches and when at their best, get award votes. The 2025 Twins have the potential to check this box.

Second, they all made savvy additions that bolstered the club. For the offseason signings, the Twins have checked this box, but in a low-wattage, minimum viable product sort of way.

Will they continue to do so heading into the trade deadline? Will they actually part with some pitching depth in favor of a big bat to pair with Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Matt Wallner? That remains to be seen, but will probably be required should the Twins look like contenders on, say, June 15th.

Third, they all had the ability to supplement their roster with talented additions from the farm. For the 2025 Twins, they have some top-tier talent capable of energizing the team in guys like Luke Keaschall (now injured), Zebby Matthews, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and David Festa.

The building blocks are there for the Twins to become the fifth team in 30 years to play to their potential, hit their stride, and prove the doubters wrong. But can they execute? And maybe even more importantly, can they get healthy? Weigh in below.