GREEN BAY, Wis. – Will the Green Bay Packers finally select a receiver in the first round of the NFL Draft? That’s the big question ahead of Thursday’s festivities outside Lambeau Field.

Some analytics suggest that maybe this could be the year.

Pro Football Network used its analytics to pinpoint each team’s biggest need. For the Packers, it’s finding a receiver capable of beating man coverage. According to PFN, Jordan Love ranked fourth in EPA per dropback against zone coverage but was just 33rd against man.

“To make matters worse,” as PFN’s Sterling Xie pointed out, big-play receiver Christian Watson suffered a torn ACL in Week 18 and probably will miss at least half of the season. Watson was by far the team’s best receiver vs. man coverage.

Packers WRs vs. Man Coverage

Here are the man-zone numbers from Pro Football Focus:

Dontayvion Wicks: 11 catches, 29 targets (37.9 percent) for 59 yards, 0.75 yards per route

Christian Watson: 14 catches, 27 targets (51.9 percent) for 277 yards, 3.34 yards per route.

Jayden Reed: 9 catches, 22 targets (40.9 percent) for 109 yards, 0.93 yards per route.

Romeo Doubs: 14 catches, 20 targets (70.0 percent) for 173 yards, 1.63 yards per route.

Of 71 receivers who were targeted at least 20 times against man coverage, Watson ranked fifth in yards per route, Doubs ranked 43rd, Reed was next-to-last and Wicks was last.

Against zone coverage, Reed was second in yards per route, Watson was 27th, Wicks was 31st and Doubs was 32nd.

Breaking it up man vs. zone for the presumptive first-round options:

Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan: 3.50 yards per route vs. man, 2.82 vs. zone.

Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka: 2.46 yards per route vs. man, 2.31 vs. zone.

Texas’ Matthew Golden: 0.92 yards per route vs. man, 2.51 vs. zone.

Missouri’s Luther Burden III: 2.93 yards per route vs. man, 2.15 vs. zone.

“Even if Green Bay continues its 22-year drought of not taking a wide receiver in the first round, there are plenty of options to address this issue on Day 2,” Zie wrote. “Prospects like Tre Harris, Jalen Royals and Kyle Williams should be available when the Packers pick in the second and third rounds, and all were ranked top 10 in the FBS in yards per route against man coverage in 2024.”

Ole Miss’ Harris led the draft class in yards per route overall. Against man, he averaged a ridiculous 10.47 yards per route vs. man – 6.03 yards better than Washington State’s Williams (4.43), who was second.

Asked about his receivers, which ended the 2023 season on such an upswing, coach Matt LaFleur at the NFL owners meetings last month pointed to drops. Reed dropped an astounding 43.8 percent of his targets against man coverage, finishing with nine catches and seven drops. He had the highest drop rate and Wicks the fifth-highest.

“That’s something that we took a deep dive at,” LaFleur said. “I think that was a big part of it, to be honest with you, is we had a ton of drops, and that’s an area that we have to clean up.

“It takes all 11, right? We talk about it all the time. There were times where we had situations where we just didn’t take advantage of it, and maybe it’s just one guy missing a block. A lot of things happen. There’s a lot of variables and, it’s definitely a long-winded answer, but I think that we’ve got a pretty good plan going into next season.”