The Philadelphia Phillies have had a lot of legendary players play for their team over the years. One of the best is Hall of Fame third baseman Mike Schmidt. He reached 548 home runs in his career, the only Phillies player to hit for over 500 home runs. Schmidt believes that a current Phillies batter is certain to reach that mark in their career.

In an interview on Takeoff with John Clark of NBC Sports Philadelphia, Schmidt was asked if Bryce Harper could reach 500 career home runs. Schmidt responded confidently, “He’s a lock.”

The illustrious career milestone has seldom been reached, and with most players in today’s game, there is a long road ahead of them to reach 500 career home runs. Only 28 players in Major League Baseball history have reached 500 home runs, with Miguel Cabrera the last to reach the mark.

Harper sits at 337 career home runs, 114th overall in Major League history. Entering his 14th season, Harper is 164 home runs off reaching the 500 home run mark. He has one home run in the first four games, but still has a long way to go.

In his seven years with the Washington Nationals, Harper hit 184 home runs, compared to his Phillies career with 153 home runs. Harper has played 197 more games as a National, but he’s still 31 home runs shy of tying his Nationals career numbers.

Harper is 32 years old and is heading into his 14th season. Schmidt played in 18 seasons in his career, and he reached 548 home runs. If Harper were to play 18 seasons, he’d need to average 33 home runs per season. His 162-game average is 33 home runs, but he hasn’t hit that mark since 2021.

While Harper has as good a chance as any active player to reach 500 career home runs, he needs to stay healthy and continue playing. His recent battles with injuries, keeping him from playing full seasons, have hurt his chances.

Harper is under contract through his age-38 season, which would be his 20th season. If he plays out his entire contract and can stay healthy, he would only need to hit an average of 23.4 home runs a year. It’s a much more reachable number for Harper, as he’s only missed that mark six times in his career.

Schmidt is the only Phillies batter to reach the mark, and he believes that Harper is “a lock” to reach 500 career home runs. Such high confidence from one of the greatest Phillies hitters ever makes Harper’s pursuit of history seem all the more likely.