Buxton is under his current contract through the 2028 season, when he will be 34 years old. He holds a full no-trade clause, so if he wants to play in Minnesota, he is in full control of that until the contract is complete. If Buxton wishes to continue playing at age 35 and beyond, however, the question becomes: What sort of player will he need to be for the Twins to want to sign him again?
Up to this point, Buxton has been a polarizing player, as injuries have severely limited his playing time. With that in view, Buxton was able to play in 102 games in 2024. He was second on the team in fWAR (3.7) and third in WPA (1.76). There is no doubt that when he is healthy and on the field, he makes a significant impact. He has five seasons with a fWAR above 3.0, even though only two seasons have seen Buxton play more than 100 games.
The value is clearly there, which has engendered patience on the part of the Twins. They’re hoping to catch enough healthy games from Buxton to push the team toward playoff success in any given year. As the speedy center fielder ages, three areas will come into focus as evaluation tools when it comes to the viability of a contract for that age-35 season: health, athleticism, and defense.
Health
This is an obvious area of concern, but will only magnify as Buxton ages. Father Time is undefeated, and our bones, tendons, and muscles only become more cranky and slower to heal as we age. If the Twins and Buxton have found a formula that can keep Buxton on the field for over 100 games per year, that could be a likely step toward this box being checked.
Alas, it’s more likely the Twins will need to see if they can come to a contract sweet spot with Buxton where any of his potential missed time won’t tie up too much of their resources. New ownership does have the potential to bring about a different financial reality. Traditionally, though, the Twins haven’t had enough resources to want to risk it sitting in the training room for large chunks of the season.
Athleticism
As will become evident, these three areas bleed together to some extent. As health is in question and age continues to creep in, every human’s athleticism takes a hit. For some athletes, it’s less impactful than for others. For Buxton, a player whose speed and ability to move creates much of his impact on the field, it may become a drag on his value into his thirties.
One area that we may not think of immediately is Buxton’s bat speed. This is an area that Jamie Cameron covered at length, and two things pop up about Buxton. First, right now his bat speed is very good. Secondly, he is right at the age where we see that drop off dramatically.
Buxton’s sprint speed is another area to watch as he ages. Since his rookie season, he has lost about a foot per second in speed. While that isn’t good, he still ranked as the 20th-fastest player in the league last season. Obviously, he will no longer be holding that number one spot like he had early on in his career, but he is still very fast when he can let loose. For as long as that remains true, he seems likely to retain most of his value as a defender in center field.
That leads us to the final area of evaluation…
Defense
As Buxton continues through the later part of his career, the question of where he will play comes into full view. At what point will the Twins decide it is best to move him to a corner outfield spot, as the Angels are doing this season with Mike Trout? Buxton is still just 31, whereas Trout will turn 34 in August, but the wear and tear is similar. Former Twins star outfielder Torii Hunter made the same transition at age 35.
What is hard out this switch is that each of these players derived so much of their value from being able to play a premier up-the-middle defensive position that the value-vs.-expense conversation becomes very real, very quickly once that change happens. That was evident in Hunter’s subsequent contracts. He went from making $18 million with the Angels to $12 and $14 million in the next contract with the Tigers. Then, finally, he got $10.5 million with the Twins in 2015, at age 39.
As both Trout and Buxton will find out, the big difference between themselves and Hunter is that the elder player regularly played the majority of a season even as he aged. The inability to do that over the last few years is exactly why the Angels are making the move for Trout this season, and it would likely be the reason the Twins would consider such a change. If Buxton can fully get over the hurdle of being both healthy and available, he most certainly has the bat skills to transfer to a corner position and still be worth a contract similar to what he is currently making.
Last season’s .859 OPS and 137 OPS+ are evidence of that. If, as evidence seems to indicate, Buxton’s bat speed does decrease with age, it may take a reinvention at the plate to sustain his production. As that happens, Buxton will also be fighting off external pressures, as the Twins could still be a team that operates with limited resources (in comparison to other clubs) under new ownership. There are a host of younger outfielders lining up behind him in the Twins system.
While Buxton having the same durability as Hunter is unlikely. Buxton will need to build on his 102 games played in 2024 to make it make sense for the Twins to sign him as he turns 35 and not turn the reins over to a younger, more affordable player. By no means is Buxton finishing his career with the Twins with one final contract an insane idea. It just depends on whether the club can feel comfortable with how he adjusts on the field to the aging of his body.
