Major League Baseball is kicking off a highly anticipated season on Thursday. After two games in Tokyo that began the Los Angeles Dodgers’ title defense, Opening Day is upon us. But issues around the spending of big and small market teams hover over the sport after a historic offseason. If MLB wants to institute a salary cap, the players’ union will not be thrilled, which would lead to a work stoppage. ESPN insider Jeff Passan warned of this future on Foul Territory on Tuesday.

“I hope they don’t push for it because if they do push for it, we won’t see baseball,” Passan said of the MLB owners wanting a salary cap. “That’s what this comes down to. And it’s going to be a real window, I think, into Major League Baseball, and into its owners, and into the league’s ideas and visions for the future just how hard they lean into the idea that a salary cap is a must-have this time around. If they do, that means they are prepared to shut down the sport.”

“Unless something miraculous happens, MLB is going to lock out the players in early December of 2026,” Passan continued. “Rob Manfred telegraphed it already. It’s part of their playbook.”

MLB must avoid a repeat of 1994

Passan goes on to say that he believes baseball has positive momentum right now behind stars like Shohei Ohtani. Young stars like Bobby Witt Jr and Gunnar Henderson don’t hurt either. And the Yankees and Dodgers meeting in the World Series gave them a massive ratings bump from the 2023 Fall Classic. But as the end of this CBA comes, MLB has to get out of its own way.

MLB players went on strike in 1994, forcing the only missed World Series since 1905. That stopped positive momentum in the league, but the players won the case against adding a salary cap. When the current CBA expires after the 2026 season, there could be another lockout that puts that issue on the front page.

Ohtani signed a $700 million deal with massive deferrals, allowing the Dodgers to spend on the rest of their roster. Then, this year, Juan Soto signed a $765 million deal with no deferrals because Steve Cohen is the richest owner in sports. This could lead to small-market MLB owners wanting a salary cap. Fans and players may push for a salary floor, forcing small-market teams to spend on their teams.

No matter what happens, MLB must avoid losing too many games