While some might have concerns after his 2024 campaign, there are plenty of reasons to believe he will be just fine in 2025.
FanGraphs projects the Twins’ bullpen to be the best in baseball, and Durán remains a key piece of that equation.
Let’s consider why fans shouldn’t worry about the Twins’ flamethrowing closer this season.
1. Underlying Metrics Suggest He Was Unlucky
Durán’s 3.64 ERA last season was higher than expected, but a deeper dive suggests he may have been the victim of some bad luck.
His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) sat at 2.85, indicating that his ERA might have been inflated due to factors beyond his control, such as defensive miscues or unfortunate batted-ball luck.
Advanced metrics like FIP can often provide a clearer picture of a pitcher’s actual effectiveness, and they can point to better days ahead in Durán’s case.
“The numbers I didn’t like too much,” Duran told reporters about his 2024 season. “I didn’t have a really good offseason because when I was doing my prep work for the regular season, I’d go to the Dominican for two weeks and go back and forth. I want to be the same pitcher I was in 2023.”
2. Elite Projections for 2025
Even with a perceived dip in performance last year, projection systems remain high on Durán.
The ZiPS model projects him to be tied with Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase for the league lead among relievers with 1.4 fWAR, while FanGraphs’s Depth Charts list him as the second-best reliever in baseball with a 1.9 WAR.
The Athletics’ Mason Miller is the only reliever to rank ahead of him. These projections consider his track record and his dominant stuff, reinforcing that he remains one of the game’s premier bullpen arms.
3. Velocity Is Trending Up
One of the biggest talking points about Durán last season was a slight dip in velocity. While he averaged 102 mph on his fastball as recently as 2023, last year saw him fight to reach triple digits most of the time.
However, this spring, he’s already been clocked at 101 mph, signaling that his velocity is rebounding.
Given his overall arsenal, he doesn’t need to sit at 102+ mph every outing to be dominant, but knowing that his velocity remains elite is reassuring.
“I focus more on my mechanics and my pitches’ movement,” Duran said recently. “I don’t need to throw really hard right now. Maybe in the [regular season] I throw harder, or maybe not.”
4. A Full Year of Adjustments
Last season, Durán was adjusting to a new pitch mix on the fly. He should be more comfortable and confident in 2025, with an entire offseason to refine his approach.
His best pitch isn’t his fastball, and as he continues to rely on his devastating splinker and curveball, hitters will have an even more challenging time making solid contact. Now that he has had a season to settle into this version of himself, expect a more consistent and refined performance.
5. Continued Pitch Development
One intriguing storyline this spring is Durán’s work on developing a truer changeup.
While it may not become a primary offering, having another weapon in his arsenal can only help keep hitters off-balance.
His splinker and curveball were already seeing increased usage last season, and if he can mix in a changeup periodically, it could give him another advantage late in games.
Every reliever has ups and downs, especially when dealing with small samples. The 2024 season wasn’t a flawless season for Jhoan Durán.
However, the signs point to a bounce-back year. With elite projections, improving velocity, and another year of refining his pitch mix, he’s poised to remain one of baseball’s best relievers in 2025.
Twins fans should feel confident that when the game is on the line, Durán will be ready to deliver.
