TWINS DISCUSS: Will Great Outfield Defense Be a Calling Card of the 2025 Minnesota Twins?

When you allow the fourth-highest rate of balls in the air in baseball, you need some great outfield defense.

The 2024 Twins season was a lesson in what happens when you can’t make the tricky (or not-so-tricky) plays in the grass. Will 2025 be better?

Image courtesy of © Chris Tilley-Imagn Images

During Saturday’s spring training game, Byron Buxton made a couple of great catches in center, preventing two would-be extra-base hits by Jarren Duran. Offseason pickup Harrison Bader was cheering him on. In a media scrum following the game, Rocco Baldelli joined that chorus.“Yeah, he’s still a great defender. I think everyone in the ballpark really enjoyed watching that today,” Baldelli said. “I think Harrison Bader in right field might have enjoyed it more than anyone else … Watching those guys run around out there together, making plays like that will fire the other one up in a lot of ways, and [they] take an exceptional amount of pride in the way that they play defense.”

When was the last time the Twins made outfield defense a true priority? It might have been 2017. Let’s get in the time machine.

“Nothing falls but raindrops”

Back in 2017, the Minnesota Twins outfield consisted mainly of Buxton, Max Kepler, and Eddie Rosario. They liked to say that when they were in the field, nothing fell but raindrops.

Buxton and Kepler were, at that moment in their young careers, perhaps the best at each of their positions in the league.

Rosario was a bit more erratic, sometimes taking odd routes or getting late breaks, but he had a strong arm and ample enthusiasm. They racked up 28 Defensive Runs Saved as a group that year.

Let’s come back to the present. During the 2024 stretch run (collapse), the outfield defense was… not great.

All too often, the Twins trotted out some amalgamation of Willi Castro, Austin Martin, Manuel Margot, and Kepler. Collectively, that group saved 23 fewer runs than average fielders would have.

Using the sabermetric shorthand that 10 marginal runs gain or lose a marginal win, that quartet cost the Twins a minimum of two wins with lousy leatherwork, and it could be closer to three.

Of course, there were also ample innings for both Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner, and both were average fielders last season, but not even Buxton counterbalanced the poor work of the others.

Looking Ahead to 2025

Subtracting Margot and Kepler; with Martin likely to land in Triple A; and with fewer outfield opportunities for Castro, what could 2025 hold from an outfield defense standpoint?

Looking at the 2025 roster, we know that Buxton and Bader figure to play a ton. It’s also safe to assume that Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach will see most of their time in the corners, with limited innings available for others. What can we expect to see from this group?

The Regulars

These four outfielders are expected to receive the majority of playing time at the three positions.

Harrison Bader was worth 10 DRS in center. Getting some play in the corners, he’s a good bet to top his 2024 totals.
Byron Buxton contributed 4 DRS in center. Coming into 2025 completely healthy for the first time in what feels like forever, he should also be that good again.
Trevor Larnach suffered from turf toe for most of the 2024 season, and it’s reasonable to expect that that impacted his sprint speed (and therefore, his range) in left field. While he will likely never be a plus defender, could he take a small step forward on defense and be worth, say, a couple of runs? Probably.
Matt Wallner, if he can stay average, we’ll call that a win.

On the Farm

Emmanuel Rodriguez seems all but certain to make his major-league debut in 2025. To date, he has been almost exclusively a center fielder. FanGraphs has a 60 grade on him as a fielder, and that likely plays up if he’s in a corner spot.
If he makes his debut around midseason, he will likely be a positive on defense, although advanced defensive metrics aren’t publicly available for minor-league play. So, it’s tough to quantify exactly what fans can expect from him.
Austin Martin will play a role, whether it’s right away or not. While 2024 did not go according to plan offensively or (especially) defensively, he has been working on his outfield chops all offseason.
“It’s been an area of focus for him. It’s something that we’ve spoken with him about at reasonable length,” Baldelli said of his young player. “And he knows it’s something we want to see out of him, and it’s going to help him become a better, more [well-]rounded ball player. And he has the athleticism for it, and he has the work ethic for it.”On a player with 75th-percentile sprint speed, Baldelli is not wrong to have at least a little optimism.
DaShawn Keirsey would be the other outfielder who could see extended play in 2025, and he should be a plus defender, too.

There’s a chance, if things break right, that the 2025 Twins get 20 DRS or so from their outfield. Compared to 2024, that’s likely to be a four-win swing, on outfield defense alone.

In 2024, four wins would have made the difference between making the playoffs, and the offseason of discontent we all experienced. Turning a defensive weakness into a strength in one season is an enticing premise.