
If you’re like me, then you live by the credo that you can never have enough pitching. It’s the most valuable asset in the game and, no matter how desperate other teams are, the last thing most fans want is for the Twins to be in their position months from now.
After all, while the Twins rotation is relatively healthy right now, Joe Ryan and Paddack haven’t been pillars of health, and their core of young pitchers aren’t guaranteed to meet the expectations put on them.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the argument is the belief that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect (TINSTAAPP).
This theory, created by Baseball Prospectus founder Gary Huckabay, basically suggests that pitching prospects’ range of outcomes are so volatile that teams shouldn’t become too tied to them.
For every Paul Skenes, there is a Mark Appel, a Matt Bush, a Kyle Drabek, and a Brian Matusz—and this is doubly true for prep arms. At the very least, the Twins must do their due diligence.
At this point in spring training, the Twins’ 40-man roster seems pretty well set.
While there are battles that will impact the Opening Day active roster, the Twins filled their gaps this winter, with Danny Coulombe, Harrison Bader, and Ty France (among other, less notable depth options).
While there is always room to improve, it can be a little hard to envision a deal between two teams that are looking to contend for the playoffs in the upcoming season.
The Twins won’t be looking to flip a major-league or Triple-A arm for far-away prospects, and opposing teams likely aren’t going to borrow from Paul to pay Pete. Nonetheless, let’s take a look at the teams in need and what they may have to offer to the Twins.
New York Yankees – Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil
Fresh off the news of their ace needing Tommy John surgery, the Yankees now have two holes in their rotation. They’d already lost the American League Rookie of the Year to a lat strain for at least two months.
The 2024 World Series runner-up does have decent options to fill those losses, in Clarke Schmidt and Will Warren, but those aren’t names whom they’re ready to rely on over a large chunk of the season.
The Yankees don’t have great depth at any one position, so it’s really hard to find a deal that both teams would be interested in.
The Yankees don’t have a great backup to starting catcher Austin Wells, but because they’re already up against the top threshold of the competitive-balance tax ladder, it’s hard to imagine them being willing to take on both Paddack and Christian Vázquez—at least not while giving the Twins anything of real value.
New York Mets – Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas
The other team in the Big Apple has also lost two starters this spring, as well as their starting catcher, Francisco Alvarez.
The timelines of Manaea and Montas are unclear at this point, although neither are supposed to be long-term injuries, and after the Montas injury (but prior to the Manaea injury) the team said they were not planning to add another starter.
While they haven’t publicly changed their stance in the last two weeks, it’s hard to envision them sitting on their hands after an offseason that saw them land Juan Soto and re-sign Pete Alonso.
Unlike the Yankees, they could be in a position to take on a couple of contracts to supplement one of the best lineups in the league, and unlike the Yankees, the Mets do have some intriguing pieces that are at or close to the major-league level.
It’s still hard to see a deal come to fruition between these two, but the Mets do have young pieces who could help the Twins in 2025 and beyond. Given that the Twins’ financial impetus to move Paddack and/or Vázquez seems to have been removed, though, finding a value fit on each side might be difficult.
Baltimore Orioles – Grayson Rodriguez
Rodriguez, who missed the last two months of the 2024 season, is set to start 2025 on the IL with elbow inflammation.
At this point, the team is shutting him down for about a week and then he will begin a throwing program.
The Orioles are loaded with young talent, some of which have been blocked from getting significant runs in the big leagues.
While the Twins did shore up first base, I’ve long been a fan of Ryan Mountcastle, who has two years of team control left and could be replaced on the Baltimore roster with a number of talented options.
Or, since that would create a roster crunch for the Twins, maybe they kick the tires on one of those talented options like Heston Kjerstad, who has more team control and positional versatility but would certainly cost an arm like Festa or Matthews, rather than Paddack.
Seattle Mariners – George Kirby
Kirby has been shut down with shoulder inflammation but, at least for now, this appears to be a short-term injury; no structural damage was found. Of the teams we’ve discussed, the Mariners may be the most motivated to add.
They’ve made small but affirmative “win-now” type moves in recent times, trading for Randy Arozarena at last year’s deadline, signing Mitch Garver the winter before, trading for and re-signing Jorge Polanco, and holding on to Luis Castillo. Despite all that, PECOTA projects them to finish third in the AL West, while competing for a Wild Card spot with an offense that is projected to be slightly below average.
While their pitching staff is the strength of the team, the difference between Kirby and Emerson Hancock may be too much to overcome while staying competitive.
The Mariners don’t have much depth and, while their farm system is very good at the top, many of their top prospects are years away from the bigs.
While this isn’t a comprehensive list, it is a list of the biggest names that teams have lost since the start of spring training.
While I do think it would be in the Twins’ best interest to kick the tires, I’m struggling to see a trade scenario that makes sense at this point.
It’s my opinion that Twins should stand pat for now. They can always reassess at the deadline, once there is a clearer picture of how their season is unfolding and where gaps may exist on their roster.