“In regards to (Ryan’s) build-up, he is completely on the path of what the pitching coaches want to do with him,” the skipper said.
Baldelli then affirmed that the 28-year-old righty is on a standard pitching plan and is no longer operating under rehabilitation protocols.
That’s a welcome development for a club struck by multiple injuries to pitchers. Ryan appears on track to be a member of the starting rotation on Opening Day.
Before sustaining the shoulder injury while pitching against the Chicago Cubs last summer, Ryan was one of the most exciting starting pitchers in the American League, generating a 3.60 ERA, 3.44 FIP, and a 147-to-23 strikeout-to-walk-ratio. He’s an integral part of Minnesota’s success.
His absence significantly contributed to the club’s late-season collapse, and his ability to return and perform at an above-average rate in 2025 will drive the club’s ability to return to the postseason.
Luckily, signs point to him picking up where he left off, with the opportunity to take a considerable step forward in his fifth major-league season.
Driven by him throwing his four-seam fastball high in the zone at a 71% strike rate last season, Ryan was one of the most effective starting pitchers at suppressing walks.
He maintained a preposterously good 4.3% walk rate over 135 innings pitched. The Cal State-Stanislaus product has sustained this approach his entire career, which is wise: it’s a strong foundation that leads to him getting ahead in counts early and often. Throughout his career, his fastball’s gradual velocity increase has made the pitch even more effective, and the pitch should be similarly dominant in 2025.
While his fastball and zone command are among the strongest in the league, he had long been searching for consistently effective secondary pitches. Interestingly, he seemingly discovered his ideal pitch-mix last season.
Ryan’s most-used non-fastball was his splitter, which he threw 22% of the time. He mainly relied on it against left-handed hitters.
That was a wise decision, as he could find strikes low in the zone with his splitter against lefties, which increased the efficacy of his already-elite fastball. His tertiary pitch was his sweeper, which he primarily used against right-handed hitters.
He also threw his gyro slider 8% of the time, which functioned as an effective faster, tighter breaking pitch against same-handed hitters.
His splitter, sweeper, and gyro slider netted a combined .204 opponent batting average, demonstrating that the pitches complemented his fastball exceptionally well. He also tinkered with a sinker last season, which could blossom into an adequate fastball variant that can run in on right-handed hitters.
Ryan has a unique fastball, three compelling secondary pitches that work well against hitters of either handedness, and the ability to pound the zone as well as any starting pitcher in the majors.
What more could one want from a starting pitcher? Despite undergoing a significant dip in performance while hiding a left groin strain from the Twins’ trainers in 2023, Ryan has improved every season since joining the Minnesota organization.
He was the best starting pitcher on a playoff-hopeful club for a substantial portion of last season, and should have been an All-Star.
Given a clean bill of health, while showing signs of further bolstering his secondary pitches to complement his indomitable fastball, there is reason to expect Ryan to have his best season yet and propel himself to ace status.
Making 1-to-1 comparisons to pitchers of seasons past is often a fool’s errand. However, there is reason to suspect Ryan could put together a season similar to Sonny Gray’s Cy Young-deserving 2023 campaign.
This season, Ryan should net a better strikeout rate, walk rate, hard-hit rate, WHIP, BABIP, and opponent batting average than Gray did in 2023.
Given that Ryan attacks up in the zone with a flat fastball, it will be nearly impossible for him to come close to emulating Gray’s 0.39 home runs per nine (HR/9) in 2023.
However, there is reason to expect his refined pitch mix and increased four-seam fastball velocity will aid in his ability to suppress home runs.
Ryan has demonstrated the ingredients necessary to become an optimized version of himself on the mound this season.
If he does, he could become the first Twins starting pitcher to win the AL Cy Young award since Johan Santana in 2006.
