“I think he has real potential in the outfield, to affect the game, to be a defensive star out there,” Baldelli said last week, in a scrum with reporters at Twins spring training in Fort Myers, Fla. “[Looking] at his jumps, looking at the way he’s tracking the ball, closing on the ball, and the more time he has out there, I think he’s one of those guys that will keep getting better.”

As a rookie, Martin spent all but 94 of his defensive innings in the outfield, and 277 ⅔ of those frames in the pasture came in center field.

The former fifth overall pick was learning the position on the fly: he had totaled just 257 innings in center during his time playing in the Twins’ farm system—although he did play there quite a bit in 2021 with the Toronto Blue Jays’ Double-A affiliate.

In the first week of camp, Baldelli has made it abundantly clear what role he sees Martin playing during the upcoming season and beyond.

According to Baldelli, Martin will get “a lot of time in the outfield” and, especially during spring training, “in center field”.

The seventh-year manager sees Martin as someone who has “the ability to [be a defensive star], and the work ethic to do so.”

Baldelli isn’t saying that Martin is there yet, but obviously, he believes the youngster can get there. While we can’t quantify Martin’s work ethic, we can look into the small sample of data we have to see if Baldelli’s comments have validity.

In his debut season, Martin graded out as a below-average (and in some cases, a downright awful) defender at all three outfield positions, according to FanGraphs’s UZR/150. In center field, in particular, he compiled a -15.5 UZR/150, which was second-worst among players who spent a minimum of 250 innings at the position.

What makes that more surprising, given his 5-foot-11, 185-pound stature, is that his range (RngR – range runs above average) grades out worse than his arm (ARM – outfield runs above average).

Baseball Savant seems to agree with FanGraphs, as Martin posted a -7 Range Run Value (RV) and a -2 Arm RV.

All of this is not to be critical of Baldelli—his statements were not necessarily speaking of Martin’s present ability, and defensive stats still aren’t what offensive ones are in terms of accuracy or consistency—but it might lead us to wonder what he sees that the overall numbers don’t.

As with any defensive position, the approach to the ball is the largest determining factor of whether a batted ball turns into an out, a hit, or an error.

As we take a closer look into Martin’s approach to flagging down a batted ball, we start to get an idea of where he struggles, and can hypothesize about why Baldelli seems to be so optimistic the former top prospect can “keep getting better”.

Of players with a minimum of 25 outfield opportunities, in the first three seconds after a ball was hit, he covered two fewer feet than the average outfielder.

In particular, his reaction was fifth-worst in all of baseball.

His “Burst”, which measures the process of getting up to speed after gaining a read on the ball, is better, but still worse than average. Yet, there are indications that Baldelli is right. Maybe Austin Martin will keep getting better.

As an All-American out of Vanderbilt, Martin’s Baseball America scouting report suggested captaining the outfield could be his long-term role.

“[Martin] has the instincts and athleticism to potentially handle center field,” the report read. “He has the defensive ability to become an asset at a premium position.”

Baldelli sees those tools, and we can, too.

His above-average “Route” rating can be attributed to his aforementioned instincts, and his 75th-percentile sprint speed speaks to his athleticism.

Given his lack of experience in the outfield as a whole (and particularly center), it’s easy to understand why Martin’s Reaction and Burst currently grade out as below-average.

Reacting to a batted ball more than 300 feet from where it’s hit is quite a bit different than when it’s hit while you’re manning the keystone.

Moreover, the lack of experience may help explain why his above-average sprint speed isn’t leading to better Burst.

There may be a lack of confidence, yet, affecting how quickly he attacks a batted ball. Given how his routes compare to others, maybe his sprint speed helps make up for the lack of “burst”.

That’s a lot of conjecture, but that’s all we can really do given the sample size of innings played.

Ultimately, Martin needs more seasoning before we can make any proclamations on whether he’ll be a “defensive star” in the outfield.

The numbers don’t look pretty now, but he has the tools to make it happen.

However, ill-informed Baldelli haters can rejoice (they won’t): he’s putting down the figurative “spreadsheet” and relying on his feel for the game to see Martin’s future potential and impact with the Twins.