Fast-forward to 2025, and his skills have reversed, to an extent. His arm strength is still considered above-average, and he has a good pop time, but the rest of his defensive skills have taken a step forward, as well.
His blocking, framing, and receiving have all improved to at least an acceptable place, and he’s considered to both call a good game and to have strong relationships with his pitching staff.
Here’s the thing, though: his hitting has regressed a fair bit.
Cartaya, for his first three minor-league seasons, hit great.
Upon hitting the upper minors in 2023, however, pitchers challenged him with better off-speed stuff. His strikeout rate crept up, his walk rate dipped, and he was a below-average hitter for the first time in his career.
Last season represented a minor rebound, as he spent the first half of the season repeating Double-A.
He hit well enough to receive his first promotion to Triple-A, and his offense fell back off a cliff; he posted just a 60 wRC+.
As we know, this inconsistency (and a stacked system) led to Cartaya dropping down the Dodgers’ depth chart, being designated for assignment, and (eventually) being traded to the Twins.
It’s easy to dismiss minor trades as tinkering around the fringes of the 40-man roster, especially when the price tag is a low-minors prospect not on any lists.
Often, that’s all it is. However, before you write Cartaya off due to some recent offensive woes, let’s be real here: defensive chops and calling a good game are about all you need from a backup catcher.
Much of the time, being able to hit one’s weight as a backstop is an added bonus.
Furthermore, the Twins aren’t exactly bursting at the seams with high-end catching prospects. Looking at their 2024 (non-)usage of Jair Camargo, there’s a clear need for a competent catcher in the upper minors who can step up to join the big-league club when the time is right.
For additional perspective, do you know what Christian Vázquez’s wRC+ was in 2024? It was 60—exactly the same as Cartaya’s, albeit at a higher level of competition.
Sold yet? If not, let’s look to some spring training quotes for guidance.
“He’s got a good mind and has been very open to everything we’ve thrown at him,” said Twins manager Rocco Baldelli in a chat with reporters over the weekend. “He’s taken it in, and he looks like he’s making good adjustments.
“There’s a potential for well-roundedness with him, which is exciting, because you’re not relying on one thing to carry him.”
So, it sounds as though he’s coachable, and he’s motivated. We know he’s hit in the past. It seems as though his defense has come a long way over the past few seasons.
To me, that sure sounds like a future major-league receiver.
It probably won’t be this season (barring an injury), but it seems likely that he will take a step forward. If things break right, he will probably be on the Opening Day roster in 2026, replacing Vázquez.
If he’s not, that’ll mean the Twins either made another, bigger trade for their catcher of the future, or overpaid on the free-agent market this offseason. My money is on them going the Cartaya route. How about you?
Now, let’s get truly optimistic.
If he can find his form even a little bit, compared to the past couple of seasons, then he’s probably in the conversation to be the heir apparent to Ryan Jeffers, rather than to Vázquez. How realistic is that? Well, a few things will need to happen.
First, in 2024, he swung and missed—a lot. He’s got solid game power when he connects, so one key will be to make more contact in the zone.
Baseball America charted him as one of 30 global prospects facing make-or-break seasons, and identified that Cartaya’s swing path is longer than would be ideal, given his bat speed.
Perhaps there will be stance or swing adjustments he can make to improve the amount of contact he makes. Finally, Cartaya has shown good plate discipline throughout his career, walking 11.8% of the time last season.
Could he improve this even a bit more? If so, he could be a true on-base machine, and that could be a path to value.
