Chris Paddack is the other lock, and I think Simeon Woods Richardson is the favorite to land the fifth spot.

David Festa and Zebby Matthews will give Woods Richardson a run for his money, but given his success last year (prior to running out of gas at the end), he’s earned an edge over Festa and Matthews.

Turning to the bullpen, we have two spots for roughly five arms. I’m considering Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Brock Stewart, Michael Tonkin and Danny Coulombe as locks to make the Opening Day roster, and I’m assuming the Twins will carry eight relievers.

That leaves Jorge Alcalá, Justin Topa, Louis Varland, Kody Funderburk, and Eiberson Castellano to compete for those last two spots.

While there is a decent chance that each of the eight arms on the bubble pitch for the big-league team sometime this season, only a couple will likely make significant contributions.

For the purpose of this exercise, I am locking Woods Richardson into the rotation and putting Castellano on the Opening Day roster. As a reminder, Castellano was a Rule 5 pick from Philadelphia, and leaving him off the roster would mean the Twins would have to offer him back to the Phillies.

Moreover, manager Rocco Baldelli had the following to say about Castellano, in a scrum with reporters at Twins spring training in Fort Myers, Fla.

“We think Eiberson has real potential, and he’s here for a reason. There’s a reason why we have not gone this route very often.”

Any skipper would say that about a player being brought in under these circumstances, but the salient detail is that Baldelli really hasn’t ever had a Rule 5 draftee before.

The last time the Twins made a selection, Paul Molitor was still running the dugout, and because of the constraints taking on a Rule 5 guy places on the manager, it seems like something the front office would ask for input on.

For those reasons, I think it will take a pretty disastrous spring for him to not make the Opening Day roster. Finally, I think Topa is the most likely to win the last bullpen spot out of camp. So, of the remaining five names whom I’m predicting to be cut from the active roster, who will make an impact in 2025?

Spot Starter/“Next Man Up” In the Rotation

I don’t think there’s any real way to predict which of Festa or Matthews will be the primary option to fill in in the rotation.

It likely has less to do with spring training and more to do with how each player is doing with the Saints at the time an opportunity opens up, or even where the Saints are in their rotation when an emergent need arises.

Also, I don’t think you can completely write off Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, or Travis Adams as guys who could debut in 2025.

That said, I think Festa showed last year that he is ready for the big leagues, over a longer and stronger sample than Matthews did. Moreover, there is some data from his first spring training appearance suggesting some changes to his delivery and pitch profile were made over the offseason (stay tuned…more to come on that ?).

For what it’s worth, PECOTA projects Festa as a slightly above-average pitcher, contributing 73 innings across 16 starts while carrying a 4.03 ERA and an 80:28 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Jorge Alcalá

Despite dealing with various injuries and inconsistency throughout his career, Alcalá has shown flashes of being a very good reliever.

Before imploding in August last season, he carried a 2.93 FIP with a 24.7% strikeout rate and an opponent OPS of just .500. There’s also some strategy to starting him with the Saints: Alcalá is a mere eight days from five years of service time, at which point he can no longer be optioned without his consent.

Although he did find his footing in September, the Twins’ best strategy may be to open the season with him in St. Paul and make him one of the first calls when a bullpen spot opens. PECOTA projects Alcalá to be an above-average reliever, with a 3.80 ERA across 60 innings.

Louis Varland

It remains to be seen whether or not Varland will move into the bullpen. Baldelli himself said as much just this week.

“We’re not going to sit here and state his permanent role for 2025,” he said. Then, on Tuesday, Varland pitched in an extremely reliever-coded spot in the Twins’ game against the Yankees in Ft. Myers. Whether they’re ready to say so or not, he’s heading to the pen.

In theory, at least, his versatility makes him a realistic candidate to contribute heavily this season as a swingman. Whether it’s to cover an injury out of the bullpen; to make a spot start when the timing doesn’t work out for one of the aforementioned starters; or if he’s brought up to piggyback with Woods Richardson every so often, there will be plenty of opportunity for Varland this season.

I could even see something where he’s the opener for a bullpen game. He could give the Twins 2-3 innings and allow them to stretch out their bullpen just a bit more. If there was such a thing as a “super-utility pitcher”, Varland in 2025 might just be that. PECOTA labels him as both a starter and “long” man, and projects a 4.35 ERA across 66 innings pitched.

While that doesn’t scream impact, I think there’s plenty of indirect value in having someone who can creatively and sufficiently eat innings for you.

I also think there’s a chance he’s a short reliever, and that his ERA is closer to 2.35 than to 4.35.

It may have taken longer than we thought to reach the majors, but Derek Falvey’s pitching pipeline is finally ready to impact the Twins.

A team already projected to have one of the best bullpens and one of the best starting trios in baseball also boasts incredible depth.

Injuries are guaranteed and underperformance is more than likely, but the Twins are well-equipped to handle those bumps in the road with the sheer number of guys who can make an impact in 2025.