FRISCO – We came across the ESPN BET TV show last week and were reminded of a growing problem in sports: Analytics as de facto entertainment, especially when it meets wagering. Show host Tyler Fulghum was analyzing the Dallas Mavericks’ upcoming game against the Golden State Warriors. In finding a betting angle, he presented a three-leg parlay in which all three bets had to happen in order to “win” his wager.

We’re paraphrasing, but Fulghum said something along the lines of “with Jimmy Butler just arriving for Golden State and Dallas still learning to adapt without Luka Doncic it’s difficult to read this one, but I like the value.”

The odds of his wager were almost +400, meaning he would’ve won $400 for a $100 bet had all three pieces of the puzzle fit. They, of course, did not.

We like “value” of spending only $2 to win a Lottery jackpot of $1 million, but … you get the point. Which bring us to the Dallas Cowboys.

This side of the New York Giants, Jets and Cleveland Browns, no team in the NFL is seen in a more negative light these days. Dak Prescott is overrated and his contract is an albatross.

Brian Schottenheimer isn’t qualified. And from Prescott to Micah Parsons, they all do way too much talking and not near enough walking. Ah, but what about that precious “value”?!

The analytics betting geeks at ESPN got together this week and published a story looking at next NFL season and the early odds for Super Bowl LX.

True to their brand, the professional prognosticators revealed not which team they think will actually win the final football game of the 2025 season, but merely their “best bets” entering the offseason. How those two aren’t the same thing remains confounding.

Silly us, we’d tend to lean toward the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles and their returning cast of stars to be a “best bet” with odds of +650. But clearly we’re being too logical, too linear. …

Because well-known analyst Joe Fortenbaugh picks the San Francisco 49ers (+1400) and two others went with the Cincinnati Bengals (+1600) and the Seattle Seahawks (+5000).

Then came analyst Seth Walder, a London native who attended Bowdoin College in Brunswick, Maine and majored in government studies.

He’s been a sports analytics writer at ESPN since 2017, specializing in stories using quantitative metrics. Using that background, Walder picks as his Super Bowl LX champion … the Cowboys.

Well, sort of. “Do I think the Cowboys are going to win the Super Bowl next year? I do not,” Walder says. Must be a misprint.

Because why would an astute, analytics-stuffed gambler place a wager on something he doesn’t believe will happen?

Why would he flush money down the toilet betting on a +5000 longshot with better odds than only 13 other teams? Ah, the “value.” Right, right.

Cowboys Fans (Barely) Remember Parade Day Pain “But 50-1 for a team that has the foundation of a Super Bowl team?

Including a high-end quarterback in Dak Prescott, arguably the best defensive player on a per snap basis last season in Micah Parsons and an elite wide receiver in CeeDee Lamb.

I can get on board with those odds,” Walder continues. “Some of the roster will be in transition, so Dallas is going to need to hit on some role players, and the new coaching staff is going to have to work out. But the upside is there, and that’s what we’re going for here.”

A lot of Cowboys fans seemed done with investing time, energy and emotion into a team that hasn’t sniffed a Super Bowl in 30 years.

But there are some expert analysts apparently willing to invest money in them … if for nothing else that their bizarre beliefs in their “value” and “upside”.