Made some changes from the projection after the Winter Meetings. If Luis Robert Jr. is traded before Opening Day, then the roster looks something out of the movie Major League.
The Chicago White Sox are projected to win more games this season. However, they are still projected to lose 100 games.
That is so White Sox.
Only the White Sox can have a predicted 20-game win improvement, and it still means the club will only win 61 games. That is how big of a bottom 2024 was when the Southsiders had a record 121 losses.
The main reason for the Sox forecasted to win more games is not because the talent has been upgraded. Nope, the belief is the Pale Hose are actually less talented than the 2024 club.
The main reason for the win bump is that the law averages dictate that the Sox should return to the norm of baseball teams being guaranteed to win 60 games, lose 60 games, and then the other 42 making the difference.
That’s right. Variance dictates that the White Sox should not lose additional games in the manner they lost in 2024.
The Sox lost games in 2024 because they were bad. Being historically bad also happened because they rarely ran into a starting pitcher having a bad day or a team going through a rough patch.
Luck was always against the Sox. Think about it, they lost a game on one of the most amazing walk-off home run-robbing catches you will ever see.
Still, winning 61 games would be a welcomed sight after enduring that painful 2024 season.
Who will help the Sox get back to being run-of-the-mill bad as compared to historically awful will be one of the major storylines for the White Sox spring training.
There are a lot of position battles this spring training including catcher, second base, shortstop, third base, fifth starting pitcher, and the bullpen.
With additional moves being made since the Winter Meetings, let’s update the Opening Day roster projection.
Starting Rotation
Martin Perez, Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin, Bryse Wilson, and Sean Burke
Ideally, you want Wilson coming out of the bullpen since his career numbers are better when he is a reliever. He is slotted in here since Drew Thorpe might be starting the season on the injured list after having a setback from his elbow surgery.
If Thorpe is ready by the Opening Day, then it makes sense to move Wilson to the pen. However, Thorpe is talking like he might miss a week or two to start the season.
Thorpe: "Realistically I would rather miss a week, a couple of weeks on the front end and be healthy and not deal with it all season, then try and push it and have to deal with it all year and missing time in the middle or end of the season."
— Scott Merkin (@scottmerkin) February 13, 2025
Although, you could still move Wilson to the bullpen since the Sox will not need a fifth starter for a couple of weeks.
Spoiler alert! That is why this prediction only has eight relievers making the Opening Day roster.
Martin Perez is likely the team’s Opening Day starter based on his veteran status. Jonathan Cannon and Davis Martin do deserve consideration for the honor as well based on the solid seasons they had in 2024. Remember, starting pitching was not the team’s biggest problem last season.
Sean Burke showed a ton of promise in three starts last season and that is why he should be in the rotation as he has a high upside.
It sounds like Jared Shuster is getting stretched out to be a depth starter. That makes sense as the rotation will need a southpaw after the team hopefully trades Perez at the deadline. Maybe he threatens to push Wilson or Burke, but it would probably make more sense to build up his arm to handle starter’s innings at Triple-A.
