Buckle up, Red Sox fans; spring training is around the corner! The Sox are in for an exciting year with a revamped starting rotation, improved bullpen, and several top prospects itching to make their debuts.
While there’s still time left to make last-minute free agent signings — the Sox’s biggest needs include a righty power bat and bullpen depth — Boston has plenty to work with at JetBlue Park in Fort Myers, Florida.
But before spring training officially kicks off on Feb. 12, here are three bold predictions for Boston this season.
3 bold predictions for the 2025 Red Sox
Rafael Devers will bounce back and hit 40+ home runs
This prediction is more fact than fiction. Devers slashed .272/.354/.516 in 138 games while dealing with a bone bruise in April and persistent shoulder inflammation that ultimately ended his season early. Though he never fully treated his shoulder soreness, Devers still managed to slug 28 home runs, be named an All-Star, and land on the AL MVP ballot.
Devers is dangerous at the plate when he’s healthy. In 2023, he posted a similar stat line but hit five extra home runs in 153 games. In 2022, when he played 156 games, Devers had a slightly higher batting average and slugging percentage and hit 38 home runs.
If he can stay healthy, Devers is bound to have a great season. And since the Red Sox haven’t signed any free agent bats to make up for the 31 home runs of production they lost when Tyler O’Neill signed with the Orioles, they’ll need Devers to bounce back.
Walker Buehler won’t play the entire season in Boston
Examining the punnett square of potential outcomes, the odds of Buehler being traded versus staying the whole season are 3:1.
Regardless of whether he does well, Boston will trade Buehler if it underperforms. There’s little incentive for the Sox to exercise Buehler’s 2026 $25 million option and keep him for the second half if they are doing poorly in July. Boston would be better off trading him and getting something in return instead of losing him to free agency for nothing.
Buehler will also probably be traded if he is doing poorly but the Sox are doing well. It would be in Boston’s best interest to trade a struggling pitcher for players who are actively performing well instead of hoping that he resurges in the second half and risk losing the chance to trade him before his contract ends.
Buehler only stays is if he does well and the Sox aren’t behind in the AL East race. With his one-year contract already painting him as a rental, it seems as though the stars have to align for him to stay with the Sox.
The Red Sox fall short of making the playoffs despite finishing above .500
The Sox are a much better team after their offseason additions.
As their roster currently stands, the Red Sox have all the tools they need to win 82 games or more. If everyone stays healthy, which is a big if, and either Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, or Kristian Campbell provides support when it matters most, 85 wins are attainable. The only question is if it’ll be enough.
Being in one of the toughest divisions in MLB, the Sox will have to fight to make the postseason. According to BetMGM, the Yankees have the best odds at +110 to win the AL East, followed by the Orioles (+240), then the Red Sox (+425). Baltimore snagged the first Wild Card spot, and the last two were claimed by AL Central teams last year.
Whether chief baseball officer Craig Breslow decides to make a win-now move is a jump ball, and without one, it may be even harder for the Sox to sneak into October.
