Green Bay Packers General Manager Brian Gutekunst has been calling the shots on draft night for the Packers since 2018 and features an uncanny ability to find starting-caliber players in the middle to late rounds, making him a dangerous foe when he has picks to work with.

However, the round where Gutekunst has consistently struggled to “hit” on a pick has unfortunately been in the first round.

This does not deflect from the fact that Gutekunst is widely respected around the league for his roster-building strategy. He’s been an asset to the Packers by assembling a quality roster in the late years of Aaron Rodgers’ career, simultaneously setting up a successful transition into a new era at quarterback with Jordan Love, and turning over an old roster to the youngest in the league.

Some moves haven’t panned out, but no GM is perfect, and bringing in rookies to develop into quality starters is far more difficult than social media makes it out to be.

Throughout it all, Gutekunst has stuck to his guns by drafting high-caliber athletes in round one, even if it means avoiding a player who could step in immediately as a more pro-ready starter in favor of someone who may need a few years to develop.

With nine first-round picks under his belt, a tenth coming up in 2025, no Super Bowl appearances since 2011, and only one first-rounder drafted by Gutekunst achieving All-Pro ranks, the Packers’ first-round strategy is overdue for a pivot away from what has left much to be desired from their most premium investment in the draft.

The Strategy

It’s become abundantly clear that Gutekunst prefers selecting high-caliber athletes in the first round, even if that player is considered “developmental” and won’t be able to contribute production to match the investment for a few years.

Upon signing on as GM in 2018, Gutekunst was tasked with leading three phases: maximizing the late years of Aaron Rodgers’s career, transitioning off of Aaron Rodgers, and constructing a team around his quarterback to build the future of the Packers.

To accomplish this all, Gutekunst has dialed into a first-round strategy built around a split focus on drafting players who can inject immediate contributions on day one and investing in developmental players to contribute on a rotational basis before ideally taking over a few years down the road. His first pick set the tone, with Jaire Alexander being an instant impact starter to turn around what was a vulnerable Packers secondary in 2017.

No matter the case, the players he selects in round one have been top-of-the-class athletic profiles.

The proof lies in the RAS (relative athletic scores) of his picks. Out of a possible perfect RAS of 10, his selections have put up impressive athletic scores.

Jaire Alexander: 9.54

Rashan Gary: 9.95

Darnell Savage: 8.35

Jordan Love: 8.43

Eric Stokes: 9.38

Quay Walker: 9.63

Devonte Wyatt: 9.54

Lukas Van Ness: 9.39

Jordan Morgan: 9.25

Of this group, Alexander, Stokes, Walker, and Savage were thrust into starter roles in their first seasons to introduce a youthful core of starters into positions of need on talented but older rosters.

Walker is the most recent example of Gutekunst leveraging a first-round pick for a high-caliber athlete who’d get the start on day one to fill a roster need. Even though Walker’s shortcomings in playing instinctually and technically sound weren’t exactly ideal to have starting right away, live game reps are crucial for budding players.

Meanwhile, Van Ness, Wyatt, Love, and Gary were all drafted as “developmental” players to be rotational pieces at first but ultimately to be developed to take over as older players departed the organization. In Gary’s case, it was Za’Darius Smith. For Van Ness, it was Preston Smith. Love was brought in to replace Rodgers. Wyatt’s rookie season was spent as a backup, but he was brought in to be the future running mate to Kenny Clark in the interior.

In Morgan’s case, you can never have enough linemen, and from the start, he was competing to assume the starting role at right guard before injuries stacked up almost immediately and throughout the season.

So far, Alexander has been the most accomplished of Gutekunst’s picks, and Love is well on his way. While Gary has not had any dominant seasons and struggled to take over games this season, he’s been a great piece for the Packers as well.

However, only three of nine first-round picks experiencing some form of sustained success is not exactly an ideal hit rate. A few more recent picks are still in the development stages, and time is still yet to tell, but some players have not lived up to expectations, others are slow to develop, and Green Bay has yet to return to the Super Bowl in Gutekunst’s seven seasons.

The Problem

Since Gutekunst took over, the Packers have been constant state of competing for a Super Bowl. However, too often, the Packers’ contributions from their first-round picks have not matched the investment, and the plan to develop players has not yielded ideal returns for the present or the future.

The prominent gripe with Gutekunst’s draft strategy has been not maximizing the potential of a current roster with a first-round pick and rather being prone to diverting too much attention to future rosters with the likes of Gary, Van Ness, Love, and Wyatt.

With the Packers continuously on the verge of Super Bowl runs, not selecting more players in round one who could have played more involved roles in their rookie seasons has reared its ugly head more than a few times.

One can also argue the Morgan pick could have been better spent on positions with more immediate need for the 2024 team than offensive line, regardless how Morgan played. But again, can never have enough linemen, especially ones as talented as Morgan.

In hindsight, Gutekunst has been tremendous at finding mid-round draft picks who over-perform their rookie contracts, which has helped compensate for some first-round picks not performing to the expectation of their rookie deals. For example, in 2022, Zach Tom, as a fourth-round pick, has become a top offensive tackle in football, while Walker, as a first-round pick, has not exactly returned much bang for the buck.

That said, a much better situation is to have first-rounders contribute like first-rounders more often than not and hope to have a few mid-rounders stand out in their role. Right now, the Packers have that backward.

Walker has consistently been one of the lowest-graded linebackers in the NFL. Stokes’s early years were promising but slowed by injury, and he’s only recorded one pass breakup since his rookie season in 2021. Savage became a liability after his first two seasons once Joe Barry took over. Van Ness, after his first two seasons, is stuck in a three-man rotation across from Gary. Wyatt has to come off the field on obvious running downs and hasn’t elevated much as a pass rusher. Even Gary, after six seasons, has yet to establish himself as a mainstay among the elite pass rushers in the NFL.

Making matters worse, Philadelphia Eagles GM Howie Roseman consistently targets talent who can plug in immediately and fuel what will now be their third Super Bowl trip since 2017.

If a team’s first-round pick is expected to be a building block of the future, regardless of whether they’re pro-ready or “raw,” the puzzling part of Gutkunst’s strategy is how often he assumes more risk with his first-round pick by leaning into “raw” athletes with little college production. Not only bypassing an opportunity to maximize the potential of a current roster build and still have a building block for the future, but also inheriting more risk by selecting the less “pro-ready” players.

The 2025 First-Round Pivot

Minimize risk, maximize immediate returns.

It’s great the Packers have a roster loaded with athletes, but with the current roster build, the Packers are nearing the end of the line with “the youngest team in football” holding any water. Fifth-year option conversations are happening, extension decisions loom, and it seems Alexander is on the outs in Green Bay.

Gutekunst is infatuated with what players do in shorts at the NFL Combine, but too often, the draft industry is overwhelmed by great athletic scores that shoot players up draft boards when what happens between the white lines wouldn’t agree with the value. The inverse is also true for some great players who had a less-than-great RAS but quickly became great pros.

Josh Jacobs: 5.65

Jordan Addison: 5.94

Derrick Brown: 5.88

Patrick Queen: 7.98

Jahmyr Gibbs: 8.06

Garret Wilson: 7.77

CeeDee Lamb: 7.44

This is to say that a player’s RAS should not hold as much weight as it very evidently has for Gutekunst in round one; elite athletic scores are not an indicator of a great football player and vice versa.

If Gutekunst intends to meet the demands of his own request for “more urgency,” similar to Roseman’s formula, he needs to seek immediate returns with his first selection in the 2025 draft. And he needs to do so without as much exclusive emphasis on payers with a top RAS.

Call it selecting the best player available or “drafting for need.” Whoever the pick is, the Packers would be wise to select a player who can immediately contribute as a starter, bucking the recent trend of first-round picks who assume rotational roles for the first few years of their career or aren’t at positions with the most glaring issues.