Not unlike how it takes Punxsutawney Phil a little while to crawl out of his hole, the Minnesota Twins typically don’t fire up the hot stove until well after the MLB offseason has started.

In back-to-back years the team waited until late January to begin making actual moves, and it seems that trend will continue like clockwork.

Luis Arraez was traded for Pablo Lopez back in January 2023 and last season the Twins salary dumped Jorge Polanco on the Seattle Mariners around the same time of the month.

Once again, as the calendar prepares to flip over to February, Minnesota finds itself in the middle of a rather juicy trade rumor.

The Athletic’s Dan Hayes and Dennis Lin reported that the Twins and Padres have held trade discussions about a deal that would send catcher Christian Vazquez to San Diego.

That’s certainly a compelling headline but it’s not the whole story, as tucked away in the report about a potential deal is a report that Minnesota is among the teams interested in landing former Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease.

Come again?

There’s a reason it’s not leading the way in the report San Diego’s interest in Vazquez as nothing seems imminent on any front.

Hayes and Lin note that talks have slowed down and there’s no indication that things will get across the finish line anytime soon, but this indeed feels like textbook Twins when it comes to waiting until late in the offseason to finally strike.

Twins trading for Dylan Cease might be the splashy move the team needs

Trading Vazquez would help the Twins move off the remaining $10 million on the final year of his contract, although it’s unclear how much of that the Padres will be willing to absorb.

San Diego isn’t exactly flush with payroll space as the Padres are expected to be in the luxury tax and want to move off deals as much as the Twins do.

Cease is also in the final year of his deal, and is owed just $3 million more than Vazquez.

That’s where things could get interesting as a one-for-one seems very unlikely but the Twins might get a discounted price compared to what the Padres paid the White Sox a year ago.

In that deal the Padres sent four players — three of whom were prospects — to Chicago for Cease, which is not a price the Twins should or will have to meet.

Minnesota will have to part with something other than Vazquez to make a deal happen and it will almost certainly be a decent prospect since the Padres aren’t looking to add any significant money to its payroll.

Acquiring Cease would be right in line with other big trades the Twins make this time of year, but would be more aligned with the Pablo Lopez or Kenta Maeda trade than the Jorge Polanco salary dump.

Fans have been teased about Minnesota trading for a frontline starter since last winter but nothing has materialized as cutting costs has taken priority over actually trying to win.

That’s what this comes down to in a lot of ways, as Twins ownership has not been subtle about how uninterested they are in meaningfully investing in the roster.

Smothering the postseason run a few years ago by slashing the payroll was a pretty clear message, but Minnesota can’t roll into next season without making any additions and expect better results.

Cease would cost a bit in terms of prospect capital, but he also aligns with the type of player the Twins gamble on this time of year.

Minnesota love expiring contracts or name-brand free agents at a one-year bargain price, and Cease combines those two boxes.

He’s on a deal that wouldn’t add future money to the payroll beyond this season, would only add $3 million more than what the Twins have already budgeted for, and would give the team a potential ace who is motivated to pitch himself into a monster contract.

There’s a lot to love about these whispers of a rumor, and here’s to hoping it actually materlizes in something meaningful for the Twins.